Two things about that MI poll showing Romney, Obama tied…

…at 47%.

Michigan, of course, is not in the bag for Romney.  I just wonder whether Obama can still count on it being in the bag for him by this time next week.  Which is a helluva thing for a campaign to have to concern itself with in the final two weeks of a campaign.

Moe Lane

11 thoughts on “Two things about that MI poll showing Romney, Obama tied…”

  2. Come on Romney, you can easily hit the suburbs of Detroit and Toledo in one day. We need to win by more than enough to shut up those that want to claim fraud in Ohio.

  4. I think there are lots of places he has to worry about. Michael Barone’s article today indicates that the affluent suburbs of Philly are leaning more towards Romney and that could swing Pennsylvania. Same for Detroit.

    And don’t forget the gay marriage vote in Minnesota that has strong support for a ban. That tends to draw out evangelicals who will support the Republican. The last poll I saw of Minnesota was more heavily slanted Democrat than the 2008 electorate and only gave Obama a 2 point lead. I think he’s in trouble there too.

    At least here in Florida we have a pretty strong feeling that we’ll be going Romney. I also think Virginia will definitely head that way now thanks to President Bayonets and Horses. Did you know we have air craft carriers and boats that go underwater now? Wow! Before you know it we’ll have boxes you can put food into that will magically heat it up.

  5. The thing is that if Romney carries the swing states he is leading in then Obama needs to win all three of MI, OH and PA. I am predicting 50 to 100 Electoral College margin and coat tails for Romney.

  6. Freddie, I tend to agree. Polls also are notoriously bad at detecting waves. Obama can only win by the skin of his teeth, but Romney can win in a blowout.

    One thing polls have shown is that a substantial percentage of Obama support is willing to vote for Romney (I’ve seen it between 20-30% in several polls). Romney’s vulnerable voters are closer to the 5% range. Also, Romney’s supporters are more engaged and the most likely to vote. We also have undecideds which tend to break at least 2-1 against the incumbent.

    I think 1/3 of Obama’s soft support will switch, 1/3 will stay with him, and 1/3 will just decide to stay home. This seems to me what happened to Carter. And the momentum for Romney is not going to help people stay with Obama. That soft support may want to side with the winner.

  7. One thing polls have shown is that a substantial percentage of Obama support is willing to vote for Romney
     
    Remember, the Gallup people belatedly explained that the audience of “undecided” voters at the Candy Crowley debate was composed almost entirely of people who voted for Obama in 2008 … because they couldn’t find anyone who had voted for McCain in 2008 who was undecided about the choice between Romney and Obama! I suspect that your division of the undecideds into three equal parts will turn out to be accurate.

  8. Mitt’s father was governor of MI (where I grew up) and was a moderate that was not disliked. Even with the unions, Detroit, Flint and Benton Harbor in the bag for Hussein, there are a lot of sportsman, farmers, European emigrant stock(often Protestant or Catholic)and small business people there. I’m betting Hussein loses MI, esp. after what Jenny G., the Canadian socialist, did to the state.

  9. And, IIRC, the Detroit newspapers were on strike when George Romney passed away. They crossed the picket line to eulogize him. I think he was remembered quite fondly, especially for his strong stance in promoting civil rights. The Romneys apparently picked some fights inside the Mormon church due to its exclusion of blacks from the priesthood.

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