The Hill reports that a GOP-commissioned poll for the special election to replace disgraced Anthony Weiner in NY-09 shows a tie. I was able to get my hands on a copy of the poll results, and the numbers are encouraging: 42/42 split between Republican Bob Turner and Democrat David Welpern (+7 for Turner, -1 for Welpern from July results); 300 likely voters; 24/60/15 Republican/Democratic/Independent voter sample (21/35/33 liberal/moderate/conservative). That R/D/I number looks about what Siena was finding, which suggests that the sample isn’t skewed too horribly.
Usual caveats apply: it’s not an independent poll. Still, if you couple this with the Daily News’ endorsement of Republican Bob Turner over Democrat David Welpern (the Daily News is fairly reliably Democratic in its endorsements), and of course the earlier Siena poll from a few weeks ago that showed Welpern seriously under-performing, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that maybe there’s a certain amount of brand damage going on here for the Democrats. Continue reading Turner/Weprin tie in NY-09?