elections – Page 25

#rsrh Democratic Death Panel Watch: OH-01.

The New York Times reports that Steve Driehaus has had his DCCC advertising cut. This more or less confirms his impending DOOM at the hands of Steve Chabot; but I want to note something else from the same article. In it, local Democratic party chair Ed Good reports on OH-06 & OH-18 (two more districts where the NRCC is starting ad buys on behalf of the Republican challengers):

“They are going to try to pick off what they think is low-hanging fruit,” Mr. Good said. “But the only way Charlie [Wilson] or Zack [Space] can lose is if our party does not get out and vote.”

Yup. The locals are playing the GOTV will save us! card, three weeks before the election. Not a good sign for them; and the lack of any evidence that the DCCC will be matching the NRCC’s expenditures is an even worse one*…

Moe Lane

PS: Bill Johnson for OH-06; Bob Gibbs for OH-18.

*As it stands now, and if I understand the article correctly, the DCCC can allocate existing ad time to Space’s race. If they don’t, then Ohio Democrats have even more of a problem than they do now, and right now they have a very bad problem.

#rsrh QotD, Harbinger of DOOM edition.

From the WaPo, on the President’s no-doubt-temporary inability to rally the youth vote:

On Saturday, student organizers waved signs outside Camp Randall Stadium [at the University of Wisconsin] as thousands of fans filed out of the football game. The Badgers won in a rout, and the young Democrats tried to break through the excitement of the game with perhaps a more exciting announcement: “President Obama on campus Tuesday!”

Some fans gave thumbs up or yelled “Go, Obama!” Others responded disapprovingly, as in “How’s that hope and change working out for you?” Hundreds more walked past in their red-and-white gear without paying any attention.

Bolding mine: it’s nice to see the kids mock all those no-longer-trendy Democrats, but it’s even nicer to see rather more of them ignore them totally.

Moe Lane

PS: Ron Johnson for Senate; and Scott Walker for Governor. And click the NRCC link on the side there for the House candidates.

#rsrh Dana Milbank is bitter.

He’s so bitter, in fact, that he let what would normally have been about four or five opportunities to slam the Republicans just… drift on by. A taste:

“We have a powerful message to send,”[Rep. Steny] Hoyer said, then asked himself: “And what is that message?”

That you named a lot of post offices?

I won’t pretend to feel sorry for Milbank, but I do remember feeling similarly frustrated in 2006. With the major difference, of course, that I didn’t deserve it; while Milbank and the rest of the Democratic party does. They pretty much got what they ordered; it’s not my fault that they don’t like the taste.

The ‘Democrats ready for 2010’ myth, exploded.

This New York Times article was probably not meant to give the game away, but many things are done these days that have had results that were not actually meant. It was probably not the author’s intent to subvert the obligatory optimism of the article with such a stark headline, either. Here’s the mistake, in a nutshell: while the title (“Democrats Plan Political Triage to Retain House”) is an accurate enough summation of the article it’s still using a politically disastrous word (“triage”). Let me explain why. Continue reading The ‘Democrats ready for 2010’ myth, exploded.

#rsrh Compare to CARTER? Pshaw.

The Weekly Standard is now officially Fighting Dirty with regard to President Obama:

As Barack Obama sees his ratings descend toward the high 30s, he is increasingly described as the second coming of James Earl Carter Jr., whose presidency, gone but hardly forgotten, lives on in masochists’ minds. The comparison is unkind and not quite on target: This is less Carter II than the lost presidency of Michael Dukakis, which seemed a sure thing at this date 22 years ago, and from which we were saved by the elder George Bush.

…and honestly, Noemie Emery makes her case: my only caveat with it is that at least Michael Dukakis had some executive branch experience to point to before he ran for President. In other words…

Indeed, the mind reels.

Moe Lane Continue reading #rsrh Compare to CARTER? Pshaw.

Obama owning the economy… any time now.

There are two passages that you need to consider from this Hill article about how the current administration continues to blame the previous administration for everything in creation, but particularly our current rotten economic situation – a year after the current administration promised to stop doing precisely that. Here is the first passage…

During a July 14, 2009, address in Warren, Mich., Obama said, “Now, my administration has a job to do, as well, and that job is to get this economy back on its feet. That’s my job. And it’s a job I gladly accept. I love these folks who helped get us in this mess and then suddenly say, ‘Well, this is Obama’s economy.’ That’s fine. Give it to me. My job is to solve problems, not to stand on the sidelines and carp and gripe.”

…and here is the second:

The White House did not comment for this article.

Of course the White House did not comment: what could anyone from it say? “Yeah, well, we just wanted to look like we were accepting responsibility. We don’t actually know what to do with it, now that we have it. Besides, screaming about Bush will at least keep our liberal House members in office. The ones that are in reliably Democratic seats, that is. OK, OK, reliably liberal Democratic seats.” Continue reading Obama owning the economy… any time now.

A theory on 2010 candidates and the Ground Zero Mosque.

It is as follows: the Democratic candidates that come out wholeheartedly in support of President Obama’s position – whatever it actually ends up being – are the ones who must rely on the President’s largess in order to have any hope to survive.

This is why we see Alexi Giannoulias* and Lee Fisher** echoing the President’s language in Illinois, while Harry Reid*** in Nevada does not; and why Jeff Greene in Florida doesn’t, yet Charlie Crist**** does. I’m not going to claim that this is a law of physics, or anything – but if you’re wondering why any Democrat to the right of Dennis Kuchinich is being loud and supportive of the Ground Zero mosque, well, check their cash-on-hand totals. This issue may be the latest price for support, such as it is, from the White House .

Which is going to make Dick Blumenthal***** of Connecticut’s eventual response interesting….

Moe Lane

Continue reading A theory on 2010 candidates and the Ground Zero Mosque.

RGA: “Thirteen.”

13 Weeks from Republican Governors Association on Vimeo.

Yes, they’re fairly obviously going to be doing one of these a week until Election Day. Because the RGA – and the rest of the GOP – is hungry, in a way that the Democratic party is not. Watch Democratic legislators these days; their shoulders sloop, ever so slightly. Their eyes aren’t quite as bright as they were in 2008 and 2006. They cough just a bit more.

But they won’t go down without a fight!

…Fine by me.
Continue reading RGA: “Thirteen.”

…blamebushblamebushblamebush…

As I’ve noted before: one of the most horrible things to encounter in politics is to watch a group wreck itself and its electoral chances. The sensation is much like running in mud or maple syrup; you move and move, but never quite fast enough to matter. For true horror, the situation has to be as follows:

The situation has to be easily repairable;
The needed repair has to be something that is politically unpalatable to the people affected;
The people affected have to know how much trouble they’re in;
They have to spend a lot of effort and capital trying to energetically do the wrong thing;
And they have to keep up with the energy and effort and earnestness until the final collapse and wreck.

Really, it’s horrible. Frustrating. The sort of thing that would make any reasonable person want to go into a national party HQ and start beating people with other people while screaming “Why won’t you just LISTEN to me for a change?” The ability to see a disaster but not be able to do anything about it has been the fuel for particularly frightening tragedies since the days of Homer, and has nothing to recommend it. Unless, of course, it’s happening to the other guys.

Then it’s just funny. Continue reading …blamebushblamebushblamebush…

Minorities and the GOP: not yet DOOM?

Sean Trende over at RCP finds something interesting going on with minority polling. The basic numbers at the heart of what may or may not be an important trend are these: the exit poll numbers for 2004/2008.

	2004		2008
Voters	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem
African American	10	89	5	93
Hispanic	44	55	29	68

As Sean notes, how these numbers shake out in future elections determines how much of the white vote each party generally needs to win. Using 2008 numbers, the GOP’s target number for white voters is apparently 60%, which is a number that gives Democrats some comfort. Continue reading Minorities and the GOP: not yet DOOM?