Three out of four, at least, as CA-10 is not mentioned (to be fair, a GOP win there is the dark horse in this particular race). Short version: Virginia is at how-far-the-rubble-bounces; NJ is too close to call, but the breaks favor Christie; and NY-23 is between the Democratic and the Conservative candidate, with the NRCC contenting itself with publicly whaling on the former*. His conclusion:
Democrats could win two out of the three races, but only because multicandidate contests might allow Corzine and Owens to sneak through with a minority of the vote. A win is a win, but even if that happens, it’s not great news for Democrats for 2010.
In a sort-of-related aside, may I offer some suggestions? If you’re a member of the grassroots, stop complaining about the national party from the outside. If you’re a member of the national party organization, do a better job about being open and forthright about what you’re doing next time.
And, for both groups: life is not fair.
*Yes, I’ve seen reports otherwise.
Crossposted to RedState.