My 2010 predictions thread.

(A version of this is up at RedState)

Because it’s going to be a heckuva year, to be sure. Predictions after the fold:

  • Something called ‘health care reform’ will pass.  It will please neither party’s base; but the Republican base will be pleased with their legislators’ opposition, while the Democratic/progressive base will not.
  • The final health care rationing bill will have no public option, and language on abortion somewhere between Stupak’s and the Senate’s.  The final version will be scored by the NRLC as not being pro-choice.  Progressives will rightly consider the two events to be related.
  • ‘Card check’ will die in the Senate.
  • Cap-and-trade will quietly be smothered to death by the Democrats.
  • Gitmo will not close.
  • Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell will not be repealed.
  • DoMA will not be overturned.
  • FISA will not be abolished.
  • There will be a brutal spring/summer war in the left-blogosphere/activist community between Democratic progressives and progressive Democrats.
  • There will be at least one more successful terrorist attack on US soil.  Everyone will blame everybody else.
  • There will be credible documentary evidence that the USA’s resumption of rendition in 2009 resulted in the foreign torture of a terrorist suspect.
  • A warmer-than-usual summer will produce a series of articles on how global warming is back.
  • The Republicans will take back the House of Representatives in November.
  • Even if they don’t, Nancy Pelosi will not continue to be Speaker of the House.
  • The Senate will see a net gain of +6 for the GOP, including at least one upset.
  • Harry Reid will not continue to be Senate Majority Leader.
  • Steny Hoyer will get beaten by Charles Lollar, thus ensuring that Hoyer is not the only member of the Democratic leadership to survive the 2010 election with his or her power intact.
  • Iron Man 2 will rock.
  • Someone will buy me a Wii.  No, wait: that’s for the ‘pipe dreams’ thread.


  • DanB says:

    My only quibble: your use of the phrase “warmer-than-usual”. I would argue that the onset of a normal summer will produce a series of articles on how global warming is back.

    Any single day where the temperature is above average will spawn some report, with the backdrop of a smoggy LA day, about not just global warming, but anthropomorphic global warming.

    Maybe I’m just a cynic.


  • Wombat-socho says:

    No, Dan, you’re not a cynic, you just know how the game is played by the Tranzis and the media. Oh, wait…

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