#rsrh I dunno how Geraghty’s…

…breaking it all down; but by my rule-of-thumb his current groupings of vulnerable House seats work out to about net GOP +53 or so.  To give you a contrast: RCP’s numbers are telling me net GOP +42, Cook’s is net GOP +30, & Rothenburg’s net GOP +28.  Which tells me that my rule-of-thumb isn’t working, except in the broadest sense of confirming that the Democrats are having a lousy election cycle.

Moe Lane

PS: I expect things are going to get worse for the Democrats – and so is everybody else in this business.  Whether they admit it in public, or not.  So start getting ready for some Maximum Fun Time…


  • IJB says:

    Geraghty’s list missed some races, tho. He’s already getting nipped in the comments about missing the WA state races (esp. WA-02, which I think needs to be on any competitive districts list).

    On my end, I found some of Geraghty’s choices for the specific race ratings surprising – e.g. he puts AZ-01 as easier to win than either AZ-05 or AZ-08?! He’s the only one who has them down in that order!! And CA-51 as more winnable than CA-20?! Uh…

  • eddiebear says:

    Sadly, I no longer take much of what Geraghty says as worth much after his “Obi-wan” advisor from 2008.

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