…breaking it all down; but by my rule-of-thumb his current groupings of vulnerable House seats work out to about net GOP +53 or so. To give you a contrast: RCP’s numbers are telling me net GOP +42, Cook’s is net GOP +30, & Rothenburg’s net GOP +28. Which tells me that my rule-of-thumb isn’t working, except in the broadest sense of confirming that the Democrats are having a lousy election cycle.
Moe Lane
PS: I expect things are going to get worse for the Democrats – and so is everybody else in this business. Whether they admit it in public, or not. So start getting ready for some Maximum Fun Time…
Geraghty’s list missed some races, tho. He’s already getting nipped in the comments about missing the WA state races (esp. WA-02, which I think needs to be on any competitive districts list).
On my end, I found some of Geraghty’s choices for the specific race ratings surprising – e.g. he puts AZ-01 as easier to win than either AZ-05 or AZ-08?! He’s the only one who has them down in that order!! And CA-51 as more winnable than CA-20?! Uh…
Sadly, I no longer take much of what Geraghty says as worth much after his “Obi-wan” advisor from 2008.
Hey, I thought that we were going to pull it off up until the moment on Election Night that I was told that we had lost Ohio.