The question over at RCP is “Can McAdams Pull Off Alaska Shocker?”
The answer is ‘no,’ for three reasons:
- Despite the best spin of the McAdams campaign, he is not showing 35% support. If you average out the RCP polls for the last month, you will find that the actual numbers have Joe Miller and Murk. tied at 34.2% each, and McAdams at 25.8%. He has hit 30% once.
- Despite the best spin of the Murk. campaign, Joe Miller is not particularly fading. One poll in the last month has showed him at 27%; otherwise, he’s hitting 36%. Even with that one poll being taken into consideration, again, the Republican and the ‘Independent’ are tied and the Democrat is in a distant third.
- The Democrats are already getting a free gift in the Colorado gubernatorial race. They don’t have the karma reserves to get one in the Alaskan Senate one. You can ignore this one, if you like: the other two are plenty big enough on their own.
Sheesh. Then again, they’re pretty smart over at RCP, so I figure that they know all of this already, but are just covering all the bases.