#rsrh Eyerolling the AK-SEN Hype.

The question over at RCP is “Can McAdams Pull Off Alaska Shocker?

The answer is ‘no,’ for three reasons:

  1. Despite the best spin of the McAdams campaign, he is not showing 35% support.  If you average out the RCP polls for the last month, you will find that the actual numbers have Joe Miller and Murk. tied at 34.2% each, and McAdams at 25.8%.  He has hit 30% once.
  2. Despite the best spin of the Murk. campaign, Joe Miller is not particularly fading.  One poll in the last month has showed him at 27%; otherwise, he’s hitting 36%.  Even with that one poll being taken into consideration, again, the Republican and the ‘Independent’ are tied and the Democrat is in a distant third.
  3. The Democrats are already getting a free gift in the Colorado gubernatorial race.  They don’t have the karma reserves to get one in the Alaskan Senate one.  You can ignore this one, if you like: the other two are plenty big enough on their own.

Sheesh.  Then again, they’re pretty smart over at RCP, so I figure that they know all of this already, but are just covering all the bases.

Moe Lane

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