#rsrh Jay Cost: Be afraid, Democrats.

Be… pretty afraid.  I’m going to summarize/translates Jay’s four reasons why the Democrats should be worried about the 2012 Republican candidate:

  1. We’ve got some serious fellas running.  Romney and Pawlenty; probably Daniels, at this point; and Jay considers Huntsman serious, though I don’t know if I do.  Yes, hold that objection for after the fold.
  2. We’re not going to see a proxy class warfare battle in ’12 like we did in Obama/Clinton in ’08. The aforementioned candidates are all pretty much variations on a theme: white governors with crossover appeal who are moderately conservative.
  3. Donald Trump isn’t going to be the nominee, and neither will any other fringe candidate. Behold the awesome moderating power of using primaries as opposed to caucuses!  Using ’08 again: it’s no coincidence that Obama won more caucuses, while Clinton won more primaries.
  4. There  will be no enthusiasm gap.  More on this after the fold.

#4 is the key point: I can already hear people grumbling that how in God’s name does the party expect him or her to vote for anybody except [Candidate X] (or [Candidate Y])?  To which Jay notes two reasons.  The first answer involves a good VP pick… which, remember, might have worked for us in 2008 if the economy hadn’t had picked that fall to melt down.  The second is even more important: by November of 2012 Republicans and conservatives will have been waiting for four years for the privilege of crawling over broken glass in order to vote against Barack Obama. I myself will happily suffer a compound fracture of the leg if that’s what it takes to get me to the polls to vote a straight Republican ticket, and I live in a Congressional District and a state that is not particularly at-risk for the Democrats.

And, honestly? There’s still that bad/worse dichotomy that’s been shoved down our throats since January of 2007. Like it or not, it’s a factor. At least now they’re scared enough to actually talk about things like entitlement reform…

Moe Lane

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,


  • jetty says:

    The Dems and the MSM (but I repeat myself) ignored/downplayed/misinterpreted the 2010 mid-terms. And now, well, I don’t think they realize the intensity on our side. We may not have the big Tea Party protests this time around, but I don’t think we need them. We are informed and anxiously waiting our chance to vote these clowns out of office.

  • Suzanne says:

    Pawlenty,Daniels,Romney?? God help us. Though far better than the current Socialist in Chief – not a high bar to hurdle – the election of one of these phony “conservatives” will serve only to tarnish our party and perhaps get more Obamas elected. We need someone like Cain, Bachmann, Palin, West, Rubio, Jindal, etc. to run. Oh good golly, look at a racist conservative suggesting a coupla black guys and some Cuban guy run for president. Of course, there’s also that Palin critter who only gave birth to Trig to use him as a prop and Rep. Bachmann gave a loving home to many foster children – more props! I am an evil conservative alright.

  • Jim B says:

    jetty has it right.

    The Left has mistaken smaller rallies for less enthusiasm. But the reality is that people like my wife and I aren’t attending rallies any more, but we’re doing things like “evangelizing” our problems with Obama/Democrats to our liberal friends. And what should be scary to the Left is that – more and more – we’re finding receptive audiences.

    We realized that protests are nice, but quiet persuasion can be even more effective at times too.

  • artist says:

    Donald Trump isn’t going to be the nominee, and neither will any other fringe candidate.


    How many said that of the fringe candidate Obama?

    Especially going up against Hill.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      Artist: the Obama campaign took advantage of numerous… ‘loopholes’ isn’t quite the right word; but there were quirks in the system* that allowed his campaign to manipulate the delegate count to the point where he won the nomination without actually winning either the largest primaries, or, indeed, a majority of the popular primary vote. The GOP primary will have less caucuses, less super-delegates, and almost no proportional delegate counts.

      Trump does not stand a chance. Neither do a number of other conservative candidates, who I will refrain from mentioning by name because I personally like them.

      *Which is quietly being changed by the Democrats to prevent 2012’s results from looking like 2008’s.

  • artist says:

    Caucus/Primary issue aside, who would have thought McCain (*McCain*) would win the 08 Primary?

  • Don says:

    Moe, I think Trump may have done one great thing for the GOP. He taught all potential GOP candidates that if they ignore the pundits and go after Obama on a specific issue, terminator style, they win. There are a LOT of issues that Obama can be confronted on. The media has done a dis-service to “The Won” by covering for him so thoroughly and for so long. Politicians and talking heads seem to constantly forget about this newfangled invention called YouTube.

  • A Z R says:

    Cough Michele Bachmann Cough

    Although she is my personal pick…

  • wombat-socho says:

    Exactly how is Pawlenty a “phony conservative”, Suzanne? The man is a pro-life Republican from way back, a spending cutter ditto, and has no patience for raising taxes. What part of that is “phony” or “not conservative”? Just because he doesn’t have rock star charisma like Palin, Bachmann or Cain doesn’t automatically rule him out – and more to the point, I think his experience as a conservative governor in a state that’s anything but will come in very handy in DC, especially when it comes to dealing with a press that not only isn’t neutral but is actively hostile; after dealing with MPR and the (Red) Star-Tribune, the Washington Post will be a piece of cake.

    tl;dr: LURK MOAR.

  • James says:

    I agree that it is a mistake to pass this group off as weak. This election will ultimately be about the economy and Obama. The candidate’s main job is to debate well and run a solid campaign and to not make the campaign about themselves (as much as the MSM will try to). That is Trump and Palin’s biggest problem. Their job also is to be an effective president if they win. So in deciding on the primary, think of a candidate that keeps the focus on Obama, doesn’t have a lot of baggage, represents conservatives and can be an good president. Pizzazz or big name recognition are not the most important attributes.

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