Oct
03
2011

WV-GOV going down to the wire.

It’s honestly the best way to describe it. PPP is doing its best to put a positive spin on the way that their own polling is showing Democratic Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin going from a 46/40 lead over Republican businessman Bill Maloney to a 47/46 lead now, but the trend is fairly clear.  September’s polling showed 14% undecided; today it’s 7%, and those numbers have pretty much all broken for Maloney.  Worse, from Tomblin’s point of view?  Those are Democrats going to Maloney: Republican and independent voters have not shifted in the last month.

Does this mean that Maloney’s a shoo-in?  Of course not; Tomblin retains three advantages.  First, party registration is still lopsided in West Virginia.  Second, the Acting Governor is personally popular (as is Maloney), which is rare for Democratic incumbents these days.  Third, this is a special election, which means that turnout will be reduced.  Normally that wouldn’t favor an opponent, but if Tomblin’s hemorrhaging Democrats… well.  We’ll see tomorrow.

In the meantime, Bill could almost certainly still use some help.  Every little bit, and all that.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

2 Comments

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  • Skip says:

    Don’t forget the fourth one – even if he’s losing, at this point it doesn’t look like he’s losing outside of the margin of fraud, so unless there’s an enterprising Republican stronghold somewhere that can hide enough real votes until it’s too late for the Democrats to manufacture enough, like in Wisconsin, it’s probably going to break the other way.

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