Oct
05
2012

#rsrh I walked in late for the BLS report…

…but this was the most comprehensible part of it, and it ain’t all that comprehensible:

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing but changed little in most other major industries.

[pause]

Ah. I’m not the only one who finds this contradictory. To put it mildly. Looks like we had a lot of… well, it’s not really cooking the books. More like finessing them.

Moe Lane

PS: Jim’s got a good point, here.

16 Comments

  • Doug Stewart says:

    Don’t worry, Moe, he’s not going to spike the ball — he’s going to let the NYT, CNN and MSNBC do the spiking for him.

  • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

    U6 steady at 14.7%, the 7.8 is being driven by part time employment increase. If Obama tries to spike the ball, Romney should just say “really, really” and mock him then hit him with “Obama may define a good job as a part time job but I aim a little higher.” Way to shoot for the ground, Mr. President.

  • Wennejunk says:

    @Moe. well, of course, ‘ no sitting President, except FDR, has even been reelected with unemployment greater than 8%’ or something like that.

    Important to help him along. Next month will be revised back up, but it wont matter then. If RR wins, we can expect continual higher numbers each month, revised lower to the truth after everyone has moved on from the headline.

    @Coal: he needs to add a ‘bless his heart’ in the mix along with ‘most people think of jobs as something you can live on.”

    • Moe_Lane says:

      Heh. Already got one idiot who doesn’t have a clue what a GOOD job growth number is (hint: these days, it’s one that at least fully offsets population growth). I really, really hope that they think that they can talk people into thinking that the economy is better.

  • Jbird says:

    I’d be happy to see the unemployment rate drop (people’s lives and livelihood matter more than political gain), however, this drop seems to have come without really adding jobs. somehow. The economy really needs to be adding 300-500,000 jobs a month before this is an actual recovery. But, the drop below 8% is what will get reported, especially since Romney mentioned the above 8% for 43 months stat in the debate.

  • acat says:

    Jbird – the key metric is the labor participation rate.
    .
    Unemployment only counts those who are looking for work and can’t find. Once you stop looking, you are no longer “unemployed”… you are “not participating”.
    .
    Don’t trust the numbers until you understand what’s involved, eh?
    .
    Mew

  • Jbird says:

    completely agree acat. I guess what I meant to say was, I’d be happy to see a drop in the unemployment rate if the number of people without work was actually dropping along with it, which is what the statistic sounds like it should be measuring but isn’t.

  • Jbird says:

    What always strikes me as amusing is that with unemployment at 8-ish%, now we know what it feels like to be Europe . . . during boom economic times.

  • acat says:

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/10/mitt-romney-on-the-new-jobs-report.php
    .
    Romney on the BLS report…
    .
    Shorter Romney: “This isn’t a recovery.”
    .
    Mew

  • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

    Only Barack Obama would find an unemployment decrease driven by an increase in part time employment to be something to crow about. Of course, given his rather obvious lack of preparation for the debate and his to be charitable spotty attendence at vital intelligence briefings combined with his consistency of getting in 36 holes of golf every day, love of parties with JayZ and shooting a couple of games of hoops, perhaps experience teaches him part time jobs aren’t so bad.

  • acat says:

    Let’s see if Moe will let me get away with this:

    That *should* be the percentage of the population who are out of the labor force entirely. (URL to follow) Please note what it’s been doing recently …

    Mew

  • acat says:

    Okay, Moe doesn’t allow images. Didn’t think so.

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=3597

    There’s the URL for the chart. Go look.

    “7.8% unemployment” is a lie.

    Mew

  • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

    acat: don’t get to speak to you enough nowadays. Wanted to ask you if the rumblings out of Illinois have any basis in fact. I am reading in several places that Rahm is busy down at the graveyards registering voters because Illinois is going to be closer than the Machine would like. Is that true? Is Obama going to need Rahm to GOTV of some of those legendary Cook County “Ghost” Voters? Moe: I apologize for the threadjack.

  • Repair_Man_Jack says:

    The last time we created 785K jobs, the GDP grew by 9.3% annualized. This time, it grew by 1.3% annualized. That must by 785K low wage, part-time jobs. If these were all aerospace engineers, the mathematics would not work.

  • acat says:

    Except, Repair Man Jack, that the employer figures show we added just over 100k jobs…
    .
    .
    Where’d the other 685k workers go? Mexico?
    .
    .
    Mew

  • acat says:

    tnfriend’ .. I would advise against planning a celebration, however .. this one is going to turn on GOTV and .. determination.
    .
    (GOP voters aren’t “excited” or “enthusiastic” about Romney, in my experience .. we are “determined” to change out the Obama regime peacefully…)
    .
    Let me draw you a quick map…. http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd432/mijacat/2012-prediction.jpg
    .
    There’s no way Obama loses Cook County (Chicago) or East St. Louis. (blue, on the map) (most maps of Illinois leave off St. Louis, MO… but politically, its’ presence explains much…)
    .
    There’s no way Obama wins the (unfortunately) lightly populated corn fields. (bright red, on the map)
    .
    The question is whether Romney can win enough of the suburbanites around Chicago, the more nanny-state “gop insider” types around Springfield, and win among the remainder of the unions (Chicago, Springfield, St. Louis, and Peoria) (dark red, on the map)
    .
    I am expecting Rahm to use every dirty trick in the book, he’s just that kind of a politician .. and frankly, I think enough of the suburbanites buy into the Obama meme that it will be close… but ultimately Illinois won’t go red.
    .
    It is going to turn, in the end, on GOTV .. depressed Dems don’t vote, so Rahm may have to resort to bulk fraud.
    .
    Mew

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