Nov
05
2012

Time for my prediction: 277-261 Romney/Obama.

Popular vote?  …50/49 Romney/Obama.

I’m not putting up the map, for two reasons: one, it’s a mildly conservative estimate, which means that states that are on the cusp of being won by Romney aren’t on it.  Two, I don’t want to depress anybody who is from a state that I’ve decided is a true toss-up or leaning away from us, alas.

Moe Lane

PS: No math, no arcane analysis.  I’ve just been reading the campaign reports, listening to people whose judgement that I trust, looking at the early voting totals, noting what people are and are not talking about, seeing how things in politics look when the Presidential Race Reality Distortion Field isn’t operating… and have made my best guess on it.  Which is pretty much what everybody else is doing, too.

PPS: This is my personal prediction, not anybody else’s.

22 Comments

  • zamoose says:

    No NV, no OH, no PA, huh?

    We flip WI, thanks in large part to the WI body-politic’s autoimmune response being already in place after the recall efforts.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      I say nothing about the map, zamoose. :) Seriously, the one I created in my head has some give to it, thankfully. And I actually hope to do better. I do like the EV numbers coming out of… various states, that’s for certain.

  • acat says:

    Mind if I join in the predictions, Moe?
    .
    Sandy hit at the wrong time for Romney, it threw a large wrench into the election.
    .
    Had Sandy come onshore a week earlier, the resentment wave would have hit last week despite the press blackout. A week later, Sandy wouldn’t have affected the race.
    .
    As it is, we’re *barely* seeing (and the media are deliberately hiding, just as they hid Fast & Furious and Benghazi) the resentment wave… and covering Sandy lets ‘em get away with not covering the economy. Did anyone report on the jobs numbers on Friday? (honest question, I didn’t see anything on ‘em anywhere…)
    .
    So. Cat’s revised guess.
    .
    Romney wins the popular vote. (GOP turnout was *very* depressed in 2008, Dem turnout was *very* enthusiastic in 2008, 2012 turns that on its’ head) Romney also wins the Electoral College vote, but it’s closer than any of us would like. It may even involve waiting for Ohio to sort their absentee/provisional nightmare, so don’t expect to know on Nov. 7. If we’re lucky, we’ll know by Thanksgiving.
    .
    Dems don’t pick up much in the House, I expect it to either be a wash or a slight GOP gain .. in neither case does the gavel change parties. I’m trying to stay optimistic that Joe Walsh, whose district is mostly suburban, will benefit from the enthusiasm flip and keep his seat.
    .
    Dems lose seats in the Senate, bringing it to either 50/50 or at best GOP-51/Dem-48+Sanders. I’m also trying to stay optimistic that the same forces that help Joe Walsh will help Mourdock, Akin, and McMahon.
    .
    Mew

    • westcoastpatriette says:

      Hi, kitty…great to hear your and Moe’s predictions. I’m feeling generally hopeful and better than I ever thought I would about Romney. Too bad the stupid party had to shoot themselves in the foot — twice — with Mourdock and Akin, huh?

      • acat says:

        Hey Westcaost! If our host will permit, let me welcome you to Moe’s place. Pull up a stool and stay a while!
        .
        I’m quite confident that, by Feb. 1, we’ll need to have our knives sharp to prod Romney in the right direction. In some ways, I think he’s going to be easier to move than Obama.. less ground to cover .. but in some ways harder .. fewer of us to push as we lose the squishy Statists of the GOP.
        .
        I made my case re. Akin and stand by it .. the problem wasn’t the statement itself, the problem was the incompetent handling of the fallout. Instead of re-parsing, as Mourdock did, Akin doubled down… but McCaskill is so bad I think he still has a shot at victory.
        .
        Like I said, I’m hopeful… and I’m prepared to wait for Christmas, like 2000, before we know.
        .
        Mew

        • westcoastpatriette says:

          Thanks for the welcome. I’m sure Moe won’t mind if we schmooze for a while. I really, really miss you and aesthete at RS. I learned so much from you both. Including how to make great pasties!

          The thing that ticked me off about Akin is the party could have just as easily taken control of the narrative and downplayed the entire charade. But, no. They had to grandstand and put McCaskill back in the game.

          Maybe Romney’s going through a genuine metamorphosis of some kind and will surprise us when he has so many Repubs to work with. It will be very, very interesting to see what happens.

    • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

      My projection is Romney wins NH, CO, IA, VA, FL, NC losing NV. I am not willing to stick the neck out and say he breaches the Mustache Firewall (PA, MI, MN) but he loses it more than any GOP candidate since GHW Bush in 1988. The race then comes down to OH or WI (Romney needs to win one or the other). Another prediction is if he breaches any of the three Mustache Firewalls; he breaches all 4 and we are in for a curb stomping i.e. Ras’ & Gallup’s Party ID samples are correct. In addition, I’d say I’d let Axelrod off the hook on the Stache if he’d get rid of that hideous comb over but really I’d just rather him slip off into that good night of stealing Chicago mayoral races & never see him again.

  • Darin_H says:

    CNN just released a poll showing R/O tied at 49% with a D+11 sample. Any actual electorate that comes short of that D+11 = President Romney. I think it will be a comfortable win (5-7%, 320+ EVs)

  • antisocial says:

    I think it comes down to getting 13 votes out of NH, PA, OH, MI, WI, IA…

    WI and NH should do it. OH and/or PA… it is a landslide :-)

    I am nervous.

  • jbird says:

    my prediction is 285-253, Romney wins.
    -
    -
    as an aside, reading comments here has gotten a little annoying with all the RT’s clogging the comment area.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      Yeah, I have to figure out how to fix this.

      • acat says:

        Just my opinion, but the threading helps.
        .
        Can the re-tweets be put into one thread, i.e. “retweet-thread” and all the re-tweets be replies to that?
        .
        NO idea what the code for that would look like… much more a Neil thing.
        .
        Mew

  • qixlqatl says:

    Heh, RE: Presidential Race Reality Distortion Field, today’s XKCD was pretty awesome, imo :D
    http://xkcd.com/1130/

  • Doc Holliday says:

    My prediction, and 3 concerning things.

    My prediction is R 275, O 263. R’s pick up FL, NC, VA, IN, OH,CO, and all NE votes.

    Ok, here are some things that bother me:

    1. Intrade has Obama at a 68.4 percent chance of winning, and Romney at 38.5 percent. I know Intrade is often wrong, but are people really willing to lose their money promoting Obama unrealistically? And where are all the Repubs that think Romney is actually likely to win? If that is the case, going to intrade would be like printing money.

    2. I don’t know Nate Silver from a hole in the wall. But is this guy really willing to burn a career by being so sure that Obama will win? Of course he is not alone, but his profile this time around and his call that Obama has an 86.3 percent chance of winning, makes me go “hmm”.

    3. I can’t remember my third concern, so I will just mention the chronic concern. Demonrat cheating, illegals voting, double and triple voting, lost military ballots, etc.

    I may not sound all that positive, let’s just say I am skeptically positive.

    • Doc Holliday says:

      check that, Intrade has Romney at only 31.5.

      • acat says:

        My concerns are purely short-term, Doc.
        .
        If Obama wins, we’ll be treated to four years of the Dems ripping themselves apart as he becomes an increasingly lame duck. It won’t be *pretty*, mind, but .. the U.S. will survive him.
        .
        As for InTrade, if I had to guess, I’d say that it’s the “Dewey Defeats Truman” problem. That is, those who participate in InTrade (rather than those who just observe it) are a subset of the general population, who tend to skew pro-Obama. Younger, more hip, more internet savvy … just as the voters telephone-polled by the Chicago Tribune in that fateful election were more wealthy and .. had private-line phones in their homes.
        .
        Mew

  • Doc Holliday says:

    A positive tea leaf. Both Smith and wesson (swhc) and Ruger Firearms (RGR) are down over the last five days. These companies have been generally moving up, along with gun sales, as the fear of another Obama term has risen over the last 6 months or so.

    However, there are two problems with this indicator. One, is the fact that the companies can go down on performance, and they can go down with a sliding macro-economic outlook and stock market.

    The other problem with the gun stock indicator, is that at some point, the trend can and and should reverse with an Obama win. The reason for this is simple. The gun stocks go up in price along with the fear of new Obama gun grabbing legislation. The fear will cause people to buy guns at an increased rate because they think Obama will ban them. But at some point the same fears, if Obama is elected, will cause people to sell the stocks because they think legislation will damage the industry.

    I do not believe we are at that place right now. My opinion is that falling gun stock prices are a net positive indicator for the Romney camp.

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