Popular vote? …50/49 Romney/Obama.
I’m not putting up the map, for two reasons: one, it’s a mildly conservative estimate, which means that states that are on the cusp of being won by Romney aren’t on it. Two, I don’t want to depress anybody who is from a state that I’ve decided is a true toss-up or leaning away from us, alas.
PS: No math, no arcane analysis. I’ve just been reading the campaign reports, listening to people whose judgement that I trust, looking at the early voting totals, noting what people are and are not talking about, seeing how things in politics look when the Presidential Race Reality Distortion Field isn’t operating… and have made my best guess on it. Which is pretty much what everybody else is doing, too.
PPS: This is my personal prediction, not anybody else’s.