Michael Barone looked at the downticket races, and found some interesting results:
- On the Congressional level, the Democrats have made net gains in three states since 2008 (CA, DE, MD). There were a few states where 2010’s results were wiped out: IL’s is most noteworthy. It was also easily the most blatant redistricting hack job done by either party in 2012, but that’s what happens when Democrats control the state legislature.
- Speaking of state legislatures: Democrats went from controlling 53% of state senate seats and 56% of state house seats after 2008 to 46%/48% after 2012. They likewise gained seats over that period in only three states: CA, IL, & NJ.
A couple of observations about all of that from me. Right now, it looks like the House is going to go from 240/190/5 open to either 234/201, or 235/200. Five/six seats, in other words (or seven/eight, depending on if you’re scoring from the 2010 results). As I and a bunch of other people are noting, this result is not compatible with the D+6 result reported in the Presidential exit polls*. Neither are the state legislature results. We should have seen flips in FL, OH, PA, & WI to match the D ones in CO and NH (VA does odd-year elections): instead, we actually saw gains in some states.
That this happened is, well, diagnostic.
Link via The Transom.
*The Monkey Cage has done a fairly interesting post that looks at (and casually stakes through the heart) the ‘redistricting’ argument currently beloved of Democrats in, well, denial about what Obama did to the national party in this election. If that last sentence causes anybody reading this any kind of umbrage, I invite them to click through and join the comments over there. You’ll find lots of like-minded souls.