It’s a good basic primer for the state of play this cycle…
…but I would contest that it is being too quick to write off Oregon, and possibly Hawaii. Obamacare is uniquely problematic in Oregon, thanks to the absolute meltdown of the state exchange there and the fact that we tend to almost win statewide elections there*. We’ll see who wins the primary. As for Hawaii: well, the latest polling suggests a possible primary upset in the Senate and that the Republican candidate leads the Democratic one in the governor’s race (we have won that race recently). I’m not quite ready to put it on the board, but… maybe. Ask me again in May.
Mind you, being at the point where you have to figure out whether Hawaii will be the new firewall for Democrats is a great place to be. If you’re a Republican.
Moe Lane
*I don’t really believe in the ‘margin of fraud’ complaint, or at least I don’t believe that you need to win by five points or else the Democrats will end up stealing the election. But I do wonder if there’s something going on in Oregon and Washington state. There’s been one too many cases where a point-five lead by the Republican has turned into a win for the Democrat on the recount, and it’s never the other way around.
You mean, you found the “we found a box of ballots floating in Puget Sound that were coincidentally all straight-line Democratic voters” story unconvincing?
I haven’t contributed much this year. Any suggestions from anyone?
Ben Sasse. Chris McDaniel, and possibly Milton Wolf.
And Charles Djou if he runs.
There really is something going on in WA and OR, Dudley lost on the recount I believe, and McKenna conceded three days after the election after the automated certification. ( he lost like 51% to 48% while Obama was winning 56% and Gay Marriage was winning 53%)
He had won 59% if the vote in 2008 AG race.
Rossi of course lost definitely because of fraud in 04.
And then Bob Smith lost in 08 because of a Constitution Party candidate getting 5% of the vote ( Merkley got 48% to Smith’s 46)
What I can’t understand is why Bruce freaking Hanna ( the former Speaker of the OR House of Reps) won’t run for Governor, he had shopped around looking for a buyer for both Governor and Senate race, no go, and now he isn’t even running for reelection to the State House.
What a freaking bum. All these ambitious politicians ignoring low hanging fruit is annoying. I mean Kitzhaber ( despite having served a total of 12 years as Governor) is more vulnerable then Merkley ( both due to the nature of Federal politics and the direct nature of the ACA meltdown in Oregon)
Oh by the way, Abercombie faces a competitive primary against State Senator David Ige, and in that race he’s tied. Ige polls worse against Aiona then Abercombie.