It’s a good basic primer for the state of play this cycle…
…but I would contest that it is being too quick to write off Oregon, and possibly Hawaii. Obamacare is uniquely problematic in Oregon, thanks to the absolute meltdown of the state exchange there and the fact that we tend to almost win statewide elections there*. We’ll see who wins the primary. As for Hawaii: well, the latest polling suggests a possible primary upset in the Senate and that the Republican candidate leads the Democratic one in the governor’s race (we have won that race recently). I’m not quite ready to put it on the board, but… maybe. Ask me again in May.
Mind you, being at the point where you have to figure out whether Hawaii will be the new firewall for Democrats is a great place to be. If you’re a Republican.
*I don’t really believe in the ‘margin of fraud’ complaint, or at least I don’t believe that you need to win by five points or else the Democrats will end up stealing the election. But I do wonder if there’s something going on in Oregon and Washington state. There’s been one too many cases where a point-five lead by the Republican has turned into a win for the Democrat on the recount, and it’s never the other way around.