Mar
15
2014
4

Looking at the current 2014 Senate map.

Put a gun to my head, as of this moment this is what the Senate map looks like for us in November.

march-15-senate-map

(Map via 270 To Win) Pickups in AK, AR, LA (hardest to pick up), MT, NC, SD, WV; we retain GA (close) and KY (not close).  CO, IA (second-hardest to justify), MI, and now NH (hardest to justify, and I am indulging myself there) up for grabs. And I am still keeping an eye on Oregon. Conditions aren’t quite ripe, there, but it could be the sleeper of the season. (more…)

Feb
07
2014
2

At-Risk Senate Seats, 02/07/2014 edition.

As always, this is going to be a highly subjective take: my thoughts on each race after the fold. Bottom line: some shifts up, some shifts down, I took out Massachusetts and New Jersey because, really, well, some states are more likely than others.

Alaska Mark Begich Serious Risk
Arkansas Mark Pryor Serious Risk
Colorado Mark Udall Some Risk
Iowa Open Some Risk
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Serious Risk
Michigan Open Some Risk
Minnesota Al Franken Low Risk
Montana Open Serious Risk
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Depends
New Mexico Tom Udall Low Risk
North Carolina Kay Hagan Serious Risk
Oregon Jeff Merkley Some Risk
South Dakota Open Serious Risk
Virginia Mark Warner Some Risk
West Virginia Open Serious Risk

(Previous ranking here) (more…)

Feb
09
2013
1

House Democrats embrace their comfortable bubble of fantasy early.

Point:

Many Democrats have not been pleased with President Obama’s lack of involvement or interest in both them and their campaigns over the past few years, and have been getting increasingly restive about it — but certain House Dems left their three-day retreat yesterday apparently feeling enervated [sic] by the White House’s announced commitment to various fundraising events with the DCCC and the DSCC in 2013, and the promise of even more in 2014 as the midterms get closer, reports The Hill

Counter-point:

Solid Seats: 208 Rep, 166 Dem

Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 29 Dem

Toss Up or Worse: 1 Rep, 6 Dem

(more…)

Site by Neil Stevens | Theme by TheBuckmaker.com