Democratic Death Panel Watch, 10/05/2010.

Via Jim Geraghty, reports are in that the following three districts have been abandoned by the DCCC.  Well, technically, all that’s happening is one week’s worth of ad purchases have been canceled by the DCCC.  Then again, there’s only four weeks left – and it’s not like any of them are considered safe retentions at this point:

  • IN-08.  Open seat: the old incumbent is Brad Ellsworth, who decided not to run again in favor of losing a Senate race to Dan Coats. The Democratic challenger to Larry Bucshon is pretty much irrelevant at this point; Cook rates this seat as Likely Republican.
  • IN-09.  The incumbent is Baron Hill (best known for this); his opponent is Todd Young.  Cook rates this one as Toss-Up.
  • TX-17.  The incumbent is Chet Edwards; his opponent is Bill Flores.  Cook rates this one as Toss-Up.

It should be emphasized that Chet Edwards has been in Congress for twenty years; he survived the Texas Redistricting Massacre of 2003 and has been holding on ever since; he’s on the Budget and Appropriations committees.  Baron Hill was in Congress from 1998 to 2004, got beat in 2004, then came back in 2006.  These are not political neophytes, nor are they unskilled (Hill is conceited and arrogant, but not unskilled).  Their seats should not be hard to defend.

Which makes you wonder which seats are in even worse shape.

Moe Lane (crosspost)


Meet Larry Bucshon (R CAND, IN-08).

Larry is running in the seat currently held by Brad Ellsworth, who is of course retiring in order to lose the Indiana senatorial race.

Larry’s site is here.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.


Baron Hill (D, IN-09) does not play well with others.

Which most people reading this already knew: but it’s now the Democrats’ turn to learn that. I don’t think that they’ll enjoy the lesson:

Within hours of Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh’s retirement announcement last week, establishment Democrats in Indiana and Washington were signaling that Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) was their preferred favorite to succeed him. And by Friday, the last day to file for office, Ellsworth had announced his intention to run for the Senate seat.

It had all the makings of a neatly wrapped package, with just one exception: Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) hadn’t signed off on the succession plan.

Now Hill is suggesting he’s seriously weighing a campaign — and other candidates are making calls to committee members to feel out support — and the process of choosing a Democratic Senate nominee could prove to be a lot messier than originally anticipated.

I was pleased to hear that Senator Evan Bayh had decided to not run for re-election; it meant that we’d pick up a Senate seat. I was also pleased to hear that Rep. Brad Ellsworth had decided to go for the seat; it meant that we’d pick up a Senate and a House seat. But if Baron Hill ends up being the nominee, then Bayh’s sudden retirement will mean that we will pick up a Senate and two House seats: the Democrats can’t make their Senate pick until after the primary and they’ve already picked the sacrificial victim for IN-08.  And the progressive base doesn’t really like Ellsworth, anyway (NSFW language).

Some day I hope to hear just what the Obama administration specifically did to Evan Bayh, to fuel this revenge.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

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