Nov
23
2011
1

#rsrh On Turkish no-fly zones.

This came up yesterday at the debate – and a bit earlier, when Hot Air’s Allahpundit noted Perry’s original comments, and I responded - so I thought I’d give an update of what… is being said about the concept of a Syrian no-fly zone being established.  Note: not what is being done; what is being said.  Lots more things get said than done.

The very short version is that the Arab League has taken a surprisingly hard line against Syria, threatening sanctions against the Assad regime if it does not reform.  This, coupled with a recent United Nations human rights condemnation of Syria, means… virtually nothing; except that it is apparently giving Turkey a future excuse to institute a partial no-fly zone in northern Syria – should they so choose to do so.  And if they do so choose to do so, according to at least one report (and I do not know how credible the source is) it would involve a movement ban on more than air units: (more…)

Nov
22
2011
5

Perry and Syrian no-fly zones.

I don’t like getting involved in intra-blog discussions like this, but I feel forced to point out to Hot Air that Governor Perry’s stated willingness to enforce a no-fly zone in Syria needs – needs – to be seen in light of the following facts:

  • There is a group called the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA) which is opposed to the Assad regime.  It is unclear how large the group is, but  it is reportedly growing – it is certainly going after more ambitious targets – and it is currently based out of southern Turkey.
  • The FSA has in fact requested that Turkey impose a no-fly zone.
  • Turkey enjoys, if that’s the right word (it’s not) poor relations with Syria, to the point where its prime minister is openly calling for Assad to step down.
  • It is thus reasonable to state that the FSA’s continued existence as a group is due to the Turkish government’s willingness to at least tolerate it; it is reasonable to speculate that the Turkish government may choose to openly support/use the FSA in the future.  Which means that it is not outside the realm of possibility that a no-fly zone may in fact be imposed by the Turks.
  • While Turkey probably has a large enough air force to do the job itself, it is still a member of NATO.

(more…)

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