(H/T: Instapundit) This one is speculative: while NJ-12 is only D+5, its incumbent is Rush Holt, who has held the seat for ten years now, with election margins in the 60s. On the other hand, that’s also enough time to get sloppy; he’s a good bit more liberal than you’d expect from somebody in a D+5 seat; and if this report is correct he’s not handling well being on the other side from actual populists.
So… here’s Mike Halfacre. Mayor of Fair Haven, running on fiscal responsibility (has lowered property taxes and reduced debt as Mayor), frankly looks better than Holt did with regard to access at Holt’s own town hall. This isn’t my old district when I was living in NJ, but I know the area: it’s not infertile ground for Republicans. The fact that he’s pro-choice will be a deal-breaker for some people reading this, which is of course their privilege.
If it’s not a deal-breaker, keep an eye on this one. It may prove interesting.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to RedState.
Hi Moe, thanks for the link.
The 12th is kind of an odd district, and not surprisingly it’s drawn to favor the Dems. It literally cuts the state in two, with its western edge being anchored in the northern Trenton suburbs, its center in Princeton, the north the south side of New Brunswick and the east running out to Fair Haven on the Rumson peninsula. I would make the Trenton/Princeton/North Brunswick areas densely populated and very heavy Democratic. In a normal year these would be very tough for a Republican; this year they *might* be somewhat easier given the very high unemployment I imagine they’re suffering from.
The longer this (and I mean the debate on the Health Plan, not the recession) drags out the better someone like Halfacre’s chances.