The topline number in this Pew survey shows that the current breakdown among registered voters is 43/48 GOP/Dem, which is a seven point shift from their 39/51 results in 2008. Now that alone should worry the Democrats, seeing as Pew found that the breakdown in 2010 was 43/47, which was the year where Democrats got shellacked across the country; but the news is if anything worse when you look at the breakdown by religious affiliation. A lot of attention will be on how Jewish support for the GOP went from 20/72 to 29/65 between ’08 and today; but what may be even more important is that that GOP support among white Mainline Protestant and white Catholic voters flipped from 45/45 and 41/49 in 2008 to 51/39 & 49/42 in 2011. How this will translate into likely voters is, of course, anybody’s guess… but if you’ve been wondering why the President is suddenly talking about how neat God is, it’s probably because somebody on his staff is keeping track of Pew.
As to how this breaks down in the 2012 election… well, obviously the increase in Jewish support (as Pew notes, those new supporters are identifying as Republicans, not as Republican-leaning) is going to have an impact in Florida, which is a state looking increasingly like it’s going to be leaving the Democratic column. But possibly what may be even more important was what happened with Mormon support: it went from 68/19 in 2008 to 80/17 in 2011. If I had to guess as to why, I suspect that this represents fallout from the incredibly racist* Democratic response to California’s Proposition 8; and if you’re wondering what the point is then I suggest that you look at this map of LDS population percentages in 1990. Mormons make up somewhere around seven and a half percent of Nevada’s population, and while the numbers are much smaller in Colorado and New Mexico they are still significant. While Obama comfortably won all three states in 2008, they are all considered in play for 2012: couple that with Republican gains among white Catholics and we’re seeing a suddenly-rickety Democratic position in the Mountain West.
And that’s with a Generic Republican candidate.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*Oh, yes, rushing to blame white Mormons for their opposition to same-sex marriage – as opposed to African-American and Latino Californians, both of which groups voted to pass Proposition 8– counts as racism; after all, there was no earthly reason to do it except that one group had a conveniently low average melanin count in their skin. And the reaction to such blatant scapegoating should – but probably will not – act as a cautionary tale.
“rushing to blame white Mormons for their opposition to same-sex marriage – as opposed to African-American and Latino Californians, both of which groups voted to pass Proposition 8- counts as racism; after all, there was no earthly reason to do it except that one group had a conveniently low average melanin count in their skin.”
After all, it’s easy to blame Mormon Mind Control Rays that somehow compelled people to vote for Proposition 8 than going after non-white people. Mind you, there were a lot of racial epithets getting thrown around by members of the gay community as well but nowhere near the level of venom directed at the Mormons.
“Mind you, there were a lot of racial epithets getting thrown around by members of the gay community as well but nowhere near the level of venom directed at the Mormons.”
.
It was socially (and legally) safe for members of a protected group to spout blatant racism. Not so much for pale penis people, who flailed around until they found Mormons to hate on.
>this map
That link doesn’t work for me.
Link fixed, Beej.
The fact that 65% of Jews still support the antisemitic Dems just baffles me. My relatives on my dad’s side are Jewish and can’t stand Obama (well, most of them). I imagine there were folks in Auschwitz that were supportive of the German progressives even when standing for their final shower. I know, that is insensitive, and I won’t hold it against you if you delete this post.
Jetty, I’m Catholic but nonpracticing I’m just as mystified as you are, when it comes to Catholics supporting Obama. But then the old phrase comes to mind about “people who have eyes but do not see, people who have ears but do not listen”. “When the worlds not the same as your mind believes then you Are in a Nightmare and nothing is worse then a nightmare except one you can’t wake up from”-Werewolf the Series.
Thanks, Moe!
After Prop 8 passed, many of here in California who voted for it decided that the real reason the anti-forces chose to pick on the Mormons is because they knew they wouldn’t meet nearly so… “civil” a response in the Black and Latino neighborhoods.
Phineas, you are correct, sir. I spoke at length with gay friends who absolutely refused to listen to reason with regard to this. And extrapolated the irrational backlash to Christian businesses (Chick-fil-a) and Target (!), for pity’s sake!
Actually, Phineas, there were racial insults thrown at blacks during one protest. Link
But I have a feeling that they had enough numbers on their side that they felt safe doing so.