While I see Ed Morrissey’s point (I don’t know if I agree with it, but I see it) about whether it’s a big deal right now whether or not Barack Obama comes out in favor of same-sex marriage or not…
…it’s unimaginable that enthusiasm for Obama among black voters would suffer much, even if he reversed himself on gay marriage. Even a slight reduction in turnout would be a rather doubtful assumption. If Obama’s hold on this demographic is that fragile, he’s already lost the election. The swing-state vote is a more realistic concern, but the current vacillation won’t help if those voters are keying on this topic, either, and they almost certainly aren’t.
…on the national level, I should note that Barack Obama won North Carolina by less than 14K votes. Now, I don’t consider North Carolina to be particularly in play this year; and probably, neither does Ed. But the media is still obliged by the polling* to pretend that NC is gettable by the Democrats this year; more to the point, so is Barack Obama. So… I’m not expecting much in the way of movement on the issue, there.
Call me a cynic.
Moe Lane
*Apparently, PPP & Survey USA think that North Carolina has gotten more Democratic since 2008. This news will come as a surprise to, well, the Democratic party of North Carolina.
I figure Biden and Duncan are coming out pro-gay marriage so the campaign can try to get the media to put Romney on the defensive about it without Obama actually having to “change official positions” himself.
If that’s their plan, then all Romney has to do is say “I don’t see why you’re asking this — the president and I agree on this issue.”
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Emphasize that Obama’s official position is HIS position. Either Obama will have to change positions, or the “gotcha” is disarmed.
Taking polls with a grain of salt at this point. Wondering how many are going to look “tight” at this stage only to break in November to claim that they are accurate in the end.
Also liked the “Wide Stance” headline the Daily Caller used today on the gay marriage issue.
Believe it or not, there are in fact things that Obama could do that would make me possibly vote for him (showing enough leadership to actually PASS Simpson-Bowles, for example). None of these will happen (and that’s the problem), but they do exist. Without a doubt, coming clean on gay marriage would move my personal needle toward him, not away — and not because I’d agree with him on gay marriage (I would), but because it is, in fact, an act of courage for a Democrat to come out (heh) for gay marriage, or against abortion on demand for that matter.
Rob: I didn’t say it was a smart plan.
All Romney has to do to look like a statesman and political genius by comparison to the Obama gaffe-factory is nothing.
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He can probably do nothing and say nothing for the rest of the campaign and coast easily to the White House, not on his own merit, but just by flowing into the competence vacuum left by the Obama administration…….
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Nothing, of course, is an exaggeration: he has to do and say just enough to keep his name and face (smiling at all times) in the consciousness of the voters, but there need be no substance to it.