Specifically, the snapshots of the race when compared to four and eight years ago. Compared to 2008, Romney’s currently running about five points ahead of McCain and Obama’s running three points behind… Obama; compared to 2004, Romney is about a point below Bush and Obama is about a point above Kerry.
Normally this would be the time where I would have the statisticians show up to tell me the horrors of trying to tease useful data out of this Frankenstein’s monster; only, the ones on the Left are all out there trying to explain how double-digit Democratic-leaning polls should be taken seriously in this largely even-steven political atmosphere and the ones on the Right are trying to figure out why people are consistently reporting having early voted at higher percentages than have actually early voted. So we’ll ket them catch up with us. Still: Obama 2012. From Obama 2008 to Kerry 2004 in one fell swoop. Hope he didn’t get a nosebleed from the sudden pressure change…
Explanation for this? https://twitter.com/MattVas/status/261453215344766977/photo/1/large
Heh. Obama has next to no experience at running against a determined opponent. This is a novel experience for him.
.
Mew
.
.
.
(can I hope it’s a *painful* novel experience?)
Well, according to Nate Silver. . . . Obama is padding his lead right now. Chances of the President winning re-election have gone UP(!) 5.3% in the last week to 71%. . . No, I don’t know why I keep going back to 538 either. . . I think maybe morbid curiosity?
He called the 538 model overrated – no lie – he actually said that.
Moe: didnt you use to compare dem vs rep opinion polls of thing like education, taxes and the like back in ’08 for Redstate? Would be curious to see a then vs now comparison.