Keep in mind the following:
- We do not actually know if the number of reported expected layoffs and bankruptcies and retrenchments that we’ve seen over the last month will actually be reflected in this month’s job report. They may; then again, they may not. And, for that matter, they may, but they may not have made a significant difference yet.
- I suspect that a bunch of people on Capitol Hill and in the White House are waiting to see if Friday’s report will give them any leverage.
- The administration knows the numbers before anybody else does.
- The big question is going to be Recession in 2013? anyway.
- Is Right Out.
Prediction: the White House will act as though it has the advantage, no matter what the jobs report states. If the report shows improvement, the WH will say “See, it works!” and insist on more spending. If the report shows a worsening economic picture, the WH will go Full Krugman and insist on more spending.
Heads they win, tails we lose.
Getting wet out here on the ledge…
Six weeks later, in a little-reported correction, the figures will be revised downward. Unexpectedly.
this
“5. Is Right Out.”
For anybody who didn’t catch it, that’s a classical reference. (Which is my way of saying “I see what you did there, Moe” :D)
Armaments, chapter two, verses nine through twenty-one…