Just a link-free, quick observation: while I expect the House to not shift too much over the next few cycles (we will pick up some seats in 2014, probably, and lose some seats in 2016, probably*), I AM expecting a fairly large shakeup in the Senate in 2014, 2016, and 2018. Why? Simple: in 2008 and 2010 we had somewhat drastic swings in Senate representation, and a slightly drastic one in 2006. That means that 2014 and 2016 will have a good number of freshmen Senators being checked for the first time; and while the 2018 election will have less freshmen to be tested, some of the Democrats that did survive last cycle shouldn’t have.
So it should be brisk business for the the NRSC and DSCC for the next six years or so.
[pause]
That’s it. And that’s a guess, honestly.
Moe Lane
*And that will have no link whatsoever to whoever wins the Presidential election.
No, Moe. That’s an edumacated guess.
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The GOP did far worse in 2012 than I expected; the Dem dirty tricks squad saved a number of fat piggies from being turned into nice, crispy bacon.
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There are a lot more questions, and a more cynical (some would say pragmatic) voter pool going into 2014.
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Mew
The GOP could gain seats in 2016.But they definitely stand a chance at losing several.
The most vulnerable Senators in 2016 on the Republican side are in my opinion.
Mark Kirk-Illinois mostly because of the state and the fact its a Presidential election
Pat Toomey-Pennsylvania, I think his gun vote really hurt him, and he is on most issues to the Right of Penn.
Marco Rubio-Florida, fairly popular in Florida right now but his Amnesty push places him at risk for a challenge from the Right, also the potential for him to run for President might make this an open race.
Kelly Ayotte- She won 60% of the vote in 2010, However she is more conservative than her predecessor and NH is a different place during midterms. Her vote for Gang of 8 Bill leaves her vulnerable from a challenge from the Right, which would ultimately give up that seat should she lose the Primary.
Chuck Grassley might choose to retire and if that happens his seat is in great peril as Iowa is pretty blue during Presidential elections.
Dan Coats- Indiana is at risk if Evan Bayh chooses to run against him, or if its any Republican against Evan Bayh ( Obamacare might not be the albatross it was back in 2010) that said no other Democrat is capable of winning that race against a halfway decent GOP candidate ( and there are plenty, and Coats isn’t retiring either).
I don’t expect much movement elsewhere.