PPP: Oh, crud, Mark Begich is in trouble, isn’t he?

They bury the heck out of that lede by first throwing up a lot of ink about Sarah Palin, who I sincerely doubt will end up running for Senate next year.  After doing that, PPP gives its readership the bad (to them) news:

The best Republican hope for this seat is Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell and the good news for the GOP is that if Palin sits it out he, and not 2010 nominee Joe Miller, is the next choice of the party base. In a three way primary Treadwell gets 33% to 25% for Sullivan and 24% for Miller. And in a head to head with Miller, Treadwell leads 53/30. Even among Republican primary voters Miller has a dreadful 26/53 favorability rating.

Treadwell still trails Begich, but only by a 44/40 margin. That’s narrowed from 47/39 on our February poll. Treadwell has a +6 favorability rating at 35/29 and has room to grow with 36% of voters still not knowing enough about him to have formed an opinion.


Mark Begich, in other words, is below 50 in both re-elect and favorable ratings (he’s 42/41) and leads an announced (and actual likely) opponent by only four, a year before the election.  And, just to add to the pain: said opponent is a sitting Lt. Governor of a Republican state.  Begich got in by a hair, last time, and the particular conditions for that victory are impossible to replicate.  Begich is thus in serious, serious trouble.

Hence, the aforementioned ink:  PPP is desperate for Sarah Palin, or failing that Joe Miller, to run for AK-SEN.  I suspect that in either case PPP is still being wildly optimistic, but if things turn out the way I suspect (caveat: I’m not always right) it won’t matter.

Via:

Moe Lane

PS: For the record: The Alaska Republican primary is in a year. Anybody who doesn’t start officially running for Senator soon won’t be running at all. Keep that in mind.

15 thoughts on “PPP: Oh, crud, Mark Begich is in trouble, isn’t he?”

  1. Palin would beat the stuffing out of Begich, no matter what PPP’s polling (which I always take with at least 1kg of salt) says.

    1. Heck I think Joe Miller could beat Begich, with difficulty. At this point Treadwell is going to whip Begich like Boozeman did Blanche Lincoln.

    2. Heck I think Joe Miller could beat Begich, with difficulty. At this point Treadwell is going to whip Begich like Boozeman did Blanche Lincoln.

    3. I don’t actually disagree with you; I just don’t see Palin doing any of the logistical stuff that you do when you plan to enter a race. And I imagine that I would hear about it if she was. 🙂

      1. Sure, that whole thing with her buying a house in .. was it Arizona? .. was all a dream.
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        I think we’re all better off with her in the private sector or in a D.C. appointment.
        .
        Mew

        1. I never had strong feelings on Palin pro or con. There are probably just a few of us that way.

          But I was thinking about all the lefts outrage about how horrible of a choice Palin was, and yet we have VP Biden. How do they keep getting away with the snipes on Palin when the actual VP is such a huge embarrassment. His family also has a few issues too, but we never hear about those — as is fair unless they are public figures.

          1. It’s a variant of “the one who counts the votes decides the election”, earlgrey.
            .
            The news media have a long and well documented history of not covering stories that damage Dems.. and when they *must* cover, they leave off party affiliation wherever possible. (see also “guess which party”)
            .
            The solution, in simplest terms, is a reformation of the fourth estate.
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            It’s happening, right before our eyes .. the internet allows a million Martin Luthers (Moe Lane Luthers?) to absolutely bury the traditional media.
            .
            While this coming avalanche (blogvalanche?) may be slow in building, it’s well beyond the stage where the pebbles may protest.
            .
            Mew

  3. Begich isn’t even the most vulnerable Dem incumbent. Landrieu and Pryor are. It’s going to be a good year to be a Republican. Assuming the know-nothings don’t spoil it.

    1. Landrieu has to be in Jindal’s sights. Not that Bobby J wants to be a Senator, I think he has a different agenda .. that I support, by the way .. but I think he would throw his weight behind a solid GOP candidate, should one emerge.
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      Should such a candidate emerge from his inner circle, even better.
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      Mew

      1. Bobby J ain’t running, Landrieu is toast however since she’s gotten a challenge in Congressman Bill Cassidy ( who is from a swing Baton Rouge Parish and is insanely popular from what I hear from people down there) Landrieu is toast. Pryor’s toast if Cotton runs.

        1. Didn’t think Bobby J would want it.
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          Do think his endorsement will carry some weight .. and that a successful endorsement will help him in 2016.
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          Mew

          1. Well, everybody in LA will endorse Jindal if he runs in 2016, a successful endorsement outside of LA will help him more. Within LA I think Vitter carries more weight right now, since Jindal’s poll numbers are low. That being said a Jindal endorsement coupled with Vitter’s will grant the victory to Cassidy.

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