This is actually a pretty good look at next year’s most vulnerable governors.

NPR didn’t do anything too sneaky-like, here. The list is balanced: Malloy in CT & Quinn in IL for the Democrats; Corbett in PA, LePage in ME, and Scott in FL for the Republicans.  It’s also pretty realistic; once you get past these guys the probabilities start going way down… with one caveat.  That would be Lincoln Chafee, in RI.  The guy may not even make it out of the Democratic primary alive (yup, he switched parties); and if he does Chafee’s numbers in a three-way race are awful.  They’re so bad, in fact, that this might be why NPR left him off of the list: this was a list of vulnerable Governors, not dead men walking.

Or maybe it’s just that NPR has its little ways, after all.  Or must have its private victories…

Moe Lane

PS: For some reason, I was under the impression that Charlie Crist had actually declared that he was running for Governor of FL on the Democratic ticket.  This has not actually happened yet, though; and I wonder why that is. And whether he’s getting a certain amount of resistance to the notion, behind the scenes.

13 thoughts on “This is actually a pretty good look at next year’s most vulnerable governors.”

  1. Charlie probably hasn’t declared yet because there’s probably a black guy running that the Democrats need to clear out to give the white (well, orange anyways) guy a free shot to run.

  2. Because Uncle Crist’s record is …really bad. The unemployment skyrocketed 7% in just four years as governor and he pretty much pissed off everyone in his US Senate run. I’m sure he has a few core supporters out there somewhere, but not enough to carry him back to Tallahassee. Uncle Crist became governor with a lot of good will, but threw it all away in his quest for a fat federal pension. He might win in a local race, but Crist’s done for in state wide office.

      1. Polling, this early, is picking up “name recognition”… and Orange Charlie has that.
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        Worth noting that Weiner sustained very good poll numbers .. for a while.
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        Mew

  3. No Snyder? Thought there would be some left wing media movement against him for not bailing out Detroit.

    1. Rest of MI seems to love Snyder for not bailing out Detroit.
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      Detroit may no longer outnumber the rest of the State in votes .. including fraud.
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      Mew

    3. Snyder isn’t really taking any in-state heat for Detroit. Mostly the local Left is upset about right-to-work. In my opinion, the more interesting race is the Detroit mayorial one. It pits two Democrats against one another, sure, but the clear leader at this point is a business guy (former CEO of Detroit Medical Center, Mike Duggan) against the union backed guy (Wayne County Sherrif Benny Napoleon). The fact the Duggan is white is also of note, since Detroit like to play race politics, but is looking to vote down the union endorced African American. Its a real turning of the Detroit electorate against their normal anointed Democrat (granted to another Democrant, but baby steps). There’s more to Duggan’s campaign that is interesting, but I don’t want to leave a too much of a wall of text.

      1. I should note (can’t stop talking, sorry), that the voting habits of Detroit are important, since state elections essentially come down to ‘Detroit’ vs ‘the rest of the state’ with most Democrats around greater Detroit and smaller groups around Grand Rapids, Flint, The People’s Republic of Ann Arbor, etc.

  4. Tom Foley is running against Malloy again. Hopefully this time he whips his hide. Quinn’s toast if someone other than Brady runs. LePage looks relatively safe, IF Cutler stays in the race. A three way race and LePage wins. UNLESS some squishy Republican decides to challenge him in the primary and leave him bloodied for the General. What would be really good is if another Independent, plus a Green Party Candidate were to run as well, pealing off 5% of the leftwing vote between them can only help LePage. Cutler and Michaud will compete for the larger Left-wing vote. Michaud will get the Union Progressives. Cutler will get the Pro-Business, anti-union ones. LePage can keep the Tea Party vote, which should be enough to get him over the hump.

    1. You have more faith in the IL-GOP ability to turn out a decent candidate than I do, evidently.
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      I’m fully expecting Oberweis to try again.
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      Mew

      1. There is no Illinois Republican party. There is no Illinois Democratic party, either. There is the Illinois Combine, and they may very well decide that a Republican needs to be in the top spot a while, the better to spread the blame around.

        1. The combine hasn’t gobbled the entire IL-GOP .. it just looks that way because they gobbled most of the competent parts.
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          Some days, I forget how depressing this State is.
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          Mew

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