Let me sum up: the races currently at risk for us (Toss-up or worse) are Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania: the ones at risk for the Democrats are Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. I don’t contest any of the ratings (they’re all Toss-Up, except for Pennsylvania, which CAC rates as a pickup for the Democrats); if I had to guess which states we keep and which ones we flip, it’s probably be Florida keep, Arkansas flip… and I think that we might be ‘given’ Illinois, but that’s just my endless contempt with the one-party state that is the Illinois Combine talking. Ask me again about Colorado and Maine when events on the ground shake out more.
And ask me all you like about Pennsylvania: just don’t expect an answer.
Moe Lane
PS: If Barack Obama had had a better 2013 – and was going to have a better 2014 – there would be about four more states on our side that I’d be worried about. Fortunately for us, and unfortunately for the Republic, Barack Obama did not, and will not. Expect all-out electoral war in 2018, in other words: Democratic activists are going to be coming out of this cycle baffled, disgusted at their own party, and very, very angry.
Note: I wrote “all-out electoral war,” not “massive flipping of governors’ seats.” There’s a reason why the voters flipped all of those seats in 2010, after all, and it’s rooted in the Democrats’ current structural inability to run a state properly.
In Maine, Elliot Cutler might run again as an independant which helps Lepage more than Michaud. As an added bonus, Michaud running for governor means the Republicans have a better chance to take the 2nd district in the congressional election.
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Unfortunetly, I live in the 1st district which is perpetually blue.
I’m pretty sure Cutler has already declared he’s running. So yeah a three way race between Michaud and Cutler and LePage.
As long as LePage turns out his voters and doesn’t say anything stupid then he should do fine.
Cutler will probably do better among the coastal liberals while Michaud will do better among the union types up North. Thus splitting the Left vote both ideologically and geographically.
I don’t see Charlie Crist winning any race in Florida. Dispite just becoming a Democrat, he has no good will with them.
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Now Maryland, maybe. I hear they’d elect just about anyone governor there. 😉
MD Voter: “So, you want my vote for Gov. of Maryland? Do you have a D after your name?”
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Candidate: “I got D’s all through school…”
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MD Voter: “Close enough.”
HA!
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Just so you know (if you don’t already), Moe lives in Maryland.
Yes, Moe is one of the best exceptions that proves the rule that people get the government they deserve.
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Mew
We’ve lost PA, I’m hoping Gerlach is just taking a sabbatical to run for Governor in 2018, but my guess is the Emily’s list endorsed Democrat Allyson Schwartz will beat Corbett mostly because Corbett is a complete moron.
I think we keep Maine, it’s a three way race once again.
I think we flip Connecticut.
I can’t predict what we’ll do in Arkansas, but AR still likes Democrats and I hear Pete Ross is running.
Unlike Pryor, Ross voted against Obamacare and voted to repeal it.
I think we’ll take Illinois. not sure about Colorado.
The only way to keep PA seems to be for the current governor to flat out quit, move to a monastery, and take a vow of silence.
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Colorado, I think, have demonstrated they’re annoyed enough with the Dems to give Hickenlooper a solid run, and .. I’d bet, a win. The money that turned Colorado blue has largely moved on to try The Blueprint on Texas…
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Illinois .. I’m not sure about. It *should* be a slam-dunk, but the out-migration (exodus?) has been largely from suburbia .. voters who would normally be voting Quinn *OUT*. I’m .. not optimistic.
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Mew
Gerlach ( who is retiring from the House) should challenge Corbett. But it might simply be easier for him to wait to take on the Democrat ( or Bob Casey) in 2018.
A bloody primary would damage Gerlach, though… thus my monastic strategery.
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Kenny Rogers Law applies.
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Mew
True, Meehan is also another candidate to look for in 2018. This year would probably be better then 2018 since people are just begging for a Corbett challenger. Whereas in 2018 it would be open.
Gerlach would be the best candidate to run against Schwartz, Pro-Lifers ( of which I am one) might vote for Casey over him ( Casey claims to be pro-life with no proof, whereas Gerlach claims to be Pro-Choice while providing some support of pro-life legislation like the Trent Frank bill.
I’ll trust CAC’s election ratings when they’re better — as in, more in tune with the electorate. In 2010 and (especially) 2012, he noticeably overestimated the strength of Republicans. And I started to hope. You know the old saying about fool me once and fool me twice.
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There will not be a third time.