Here’s the Democrats central problem in 2016:
Seniors, who frequently voted Democratic over pocketbook issues like Social Security and Medicare, have migrated into the Republican column. White blue-collar voters, once a staple of Democratic coalitions past, have become estranged from their old political home over cultural issues. In their place are what my colleague Ron Brownstein labels “the coalition of the ascendant”—single women, minorities, and millennial voters. Voters within these groups turned out at high levels in the last two presidential elections to offset Democratic losses elsewhere.
The challenge for Democrats in this year’s midterms is getting these “ascendant” voters enthusiastic about showing up to the polls when Obama isn’t on the ballot—something that Democratic turnout specialists are working overtime to achieve. Even if they don’t show up and Republicans retake the Senate in 2014, the assumption is they’re bound to return at similar levels for the next presidential election. That’s not necessarily the case.
…although I think that Josh Kraushaar may be a bit optimistic about the Democrats’ long-term chances; he’s assuming a steady increase in the American Latino population which may or may not be justified. At any rate: what the Democrats need right now would be a reasonably young governor with a good track record of turning around states in trouble, a proven ability to win elections, and who can say that he or she has delivered on jobs (which is probably the single most important thing to single women, minorities, and – hoo, yeah – millennial voters). The good news? There’s a bunch of potential candidates who fit those qualifications. Bad news? They’re all Republicans.
But don’t mind me. The Democrats should totally run either the old guy with public neurological issues, or the old woman with public neurological issues. Be my guest.
Moe Lane
“Optimistic” is too strong a word. Josh Kraushaar is downright delusional.
The GOP seems bent on allowing 30 million undocumented immigrants to vote, and I’m sure they won’t be voting for the ‘R’ candidate. Add to that a constant news cycle by ABC/CBS/NBC of any slight gaffe or past high-school scandal by the Republican candidate for 6 solid months leading up to November 2016, and more Candy Crowley type debates, and I would say “cautiously optimistic” would not be a stretch for Mr. Kraushaar.
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Have I mentioned that I despise ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN/NYTimes?
Heh. That last paragraph, Moe, is why – from time to time – people still tell me they expect Andrew Cuomo or Deval Patrick to run.
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Mew
Considering how bad off she was healthwise after four years at state. Would Hillary even be able to survive four years of being POTUS.
She’s running a PR campaign to show she would, midwest .. she works out, etc. etc.
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Mew
According to Rasmussen, the top concerns of voters:
1) Economy
2) Job Creation
3) Healthcare
4) Government Spending
5) Education
6) Social Security
7) Government Ethics and Corruption
8) Taxes
9) Small Business
10) Gun Control
11) Energy
12) National Security
13) Immigration
14) Environment
15) War in Afghanistan
In the top 10, the administration can only kind-of make a case for #5 and #6 by promising more handouts, and #10 promises to energize the opponents more than the base.
Of course, it’s fairly easy to show that government caused problems #5 and #6 itself.
There’s no a lot of meat there to energize the “ascendant.”