So, it’s August, and it’s GOP +7 in the Senate.

Via Stephen Green: oh, how I love this RCP Senate average map.

I might not love it so much if it hasn’t changed by October 21st, but for right now that’s a great map. Seven GOP pickups that don’t have Alaska, Colorado, and even maybe Michigan? And no Democratic pickups?  Yeah, I’ll take that at this stage of the election cycle.  After all, it’s not even Labor Day.

Stephen analyzed the races a bit – I do think that he should have looked at Michigan, but I can understand why he didn’t – and finished up by putting a pin in the balloon that is It’s just anti-incumbent fever*! with this observation:

With all this anti-incumbent fever, you might expect the GOP to lose a few seats on the House side of the Capitol Building. Only 17 races are considered truly competitive this year, and out of those a grand total of four are currently in GOP hands. All things being equal, the Republicans might actually net a half dozen seats. That’s remarkable for one reason: The Democrats have a natural floor of about 175 House seats — races they couldn’t lose if they nominated flesh-eating zombies. And the Republicans are near their natural ceiling of about 245 seats — races they couldn’t win if they nominated God, Himself. So if voters were looking to reject incumbents, the GOP would have by far the most to lose.

What we might be witnessing then isn’t the rejection of politics-as-usual, but the rejection of politics-by-Democrats.

Although personally I’d think that +7 in the Senate might suggest that all on its own.

Moe Lane

*You can expect to hear that a bit this year, given that the Democratic talking point that Republicans can’t beat incumbents is looking fair to end up being sent out to a nice farm in the country where it can run and play.