Sean Trende wrote a very useful post on the polls today that the Democrats will utterly refuse to heed:
The bottom line is that we have neither the data nor well-tested theories to explain what sort of skew we should expect this cycle. For my money, there are two races where I really take charges of poll skew seriously: Alaska, where seven of the last seven races have understated Republican strength (by seven points on average), and Colorado, where the introduction of mail voting probably does make the electorate difficult to model. Beyond that, I would not be surprised if there was a Republican skew, but I likewise would not be surprised if there was a Democratic skew. The possibilities basically cancel out, and I’m left with the simple poll averages as the best guidance for this election.
…because, of course, the simple poll averages are currently spelling out D-O-O-M for Democrats. And, given that we have only two weeks left before the elections, if the Democrats admit that now then – well, then they have nothing left, do they? Except whatever’s on TV, I guess.
When people at a Democratic campaign rally in a deep blue state get up and walk out when the President starts speaking I think that says everything when it comes down to whether the polls are skewed or not.
http://hotair.com/archives/2014/10/20/dozens-head-for-the-exits-as-obama-speaks-at-campaign-rally-for-maryland-democrat/
Yep, that’s .. gonna leave a mark.
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I note that Obama was in my backyard stumping for Quinn (and casting his ballot ..) and .. the media have been noticeably quiet about turnout and whether people stayed for the whole show.
.
Mew
Moe,
Is it DOOM yet?
It is still too early for general DOOM.