Had to watch the forty hour debate, and I’m ready to sack out. Fast take: Donald Trump was incoherent and on at least one point (our aging nuclear arsenal) downright alarming, and will probably get punished for it by going up five points in the polls. Meanwhile, the hidden assumption on pretty much everybody’s part apparently is that the nomination fight will ultimately be between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. You could see it in the way that they framed the debate tonight; and I’ll worry about how that particular paradox gets resolved later. All in all, pretty good debate… for the first one hundred and ninety-five hours. It dragged a little in the second half, though.
22 thoughts on “OK, I’m crashing.”
Comments are closed.
So… We get a choice between *two* first-term senators with thin jackets and no discernible executive experience?
.
That’s it. Ban me if you like, Moe, but I *refuse* to vote for Elephant Obama.
.
Let it all burn.
.
Mew
That’s not entirely fair. While Obama only spent a couple years voting “present” in Illinois, Rubio worked up to Florida Speaker, and Cruz Texas solicitor general. Both are MILES ahead of Obama in understanding the machinery. Not that that’s a selling point to you probably….
Ask yourself this.
.
Are Cruz or Rubio the *best* we have to offer?
.
Mew
Of the trinity in your original comment, yes. I agree that a governor or such would be nice, but do Jeb! And Christie light any fires either?
And so.
.
I refuse to vote for another “meh”. I would consider voting for Trump, only because his failure to buck the system may finally wake people up to the fact that the system isn’t broken … the breakage *is* the system … but that’s not a very good reason, eh?
.
Like I said, let it all burn.
.
Maybe something better will grow from the ashes.
.
Mew
As tempted as I have been to go down that road, “meh” is sometimes the only choice left to responsible people, as not choosing is still accepting one of said choices, so
we may as well make the best of it.
.
Staying home is not letting it burn, its premature surrender so you may as well get your insurrection or whatever started already before we waste time with anyore of these pesky elections, if you think its so broken.
.
“Some of you are under the mistaken impression that there are GOOD options here.” -Larry Correia
Oh, I’m not sitting home. I’ll vote – just not for these …
.
Mew
Neither Cruz nor Rubio is an “Elephant Obama.” If either one of them is the nominee, I’ll be just fine with that. And while I won’t vote for Christie in the primary, should he somehow come out of the pack at a brokered convention, you know what, I’ll vote for him too. I’ll vote for anybody on that stage, in fact…
.
EXCEPT FOR DONALD TRUMP. If he is the nominee, I’ll vote for a third party candidate or I will vote for no one at all.
.
I frankly do not even understand the mindset of anyone who would consider voting for Trump, acat, so maybe you can explain this to me. People are always on about politicians pandering by saying what people wants to hear. That characterization fits Trump better than anyone on that stage, on just about any issue you’d care to name. What I couldn’t believe was that just a couple days after saying Cruz didn’t have the temperament to be president, he just reversed himself completely tonight when it was brought up. (I guess it was disadvantageous for him to stick to that one.) I mean, do you just not care about all of the things he says?
.
And his saying tonight that he would be willing to endorse the Republican nominee, even if it wasn’t him? I don’t believe it for one damn minute. Why should he stick to that? He hasn’t stuck to practically anything else he’s said.
I can explain it all day, if you don’t or won’t understand it the exercise will profit neither of us.
.
It’s simple. The system is broken.
.
Cruz won’t fix it, although he clearly is the best suited to understand it.
.
Rubio won’t fix it. He got bored in the Senate, trying to do … whatever he was trying to do.. and retired-in-place; you think POTUS is *less* constraining?
.
Trump’s a buffoon .. and *when* he fails to change the system, perhaps the attention will fall on the system itself.
.
Mew
I understand your reasoning. But I think that you can’t or won’t apply that reasoning to future scenarios. (Sorry, long post ahead.)
.
From my point of view, the least-worst thing that happens when you vote for Trump is that 1) Trump fails to win the nomination and graciously endorses his former primary opponent, who goes on to win the general. Which would give you exactly none of what you say you want, since “the system” would never be called into question.
.
The other things that could happen, with reactions from both our points of view:
.
2) Trump loses the nomination, and endorses his primary opponent, who fails to win the general. In which case, say hello to the second President Clinton, and “the system” never gets fixed or paid attention to.
3) Trump fails to win the nomination and either endorses Clinton, or else launches an independent campaign out of spite. Same consequences as 2).
.
4) Trump wins the nomination, but loses the general. Same consequences as 2) and 3).
.
5) Trump wins the nomination, wins the general, and assumes office in 2017. Of the five scenarios under discussion, this is the only one that might give you what you say you want. But it is also the least likely of the five to happen. And if it happens, you will have deliberately participated in the installation of someone you yourself admit is a buffoon. What sort of short-term and long-term damage will that do to our country and its standing in the world, and how could that cost possibly be worth the benefit you say you want?
.
So, to rephrase, I don’t understand why you would deliberately angle for the least likely possibility vis a vis Trump in the hope that, should it come to pass, you’ll win the mother of all Pyrrhic victories. Am I missing something? Have I made an error in my reasoning? Do you think I have misranked the likelihoods? Do you think my descriptions of the various consequences are off? Or am I pretty much right, and you’re just hoping to find a good seat to watch the world burn?
You missed at least one option, Trump is just short of having enough delegates to win the nomination on a first ballot, or has enough delegates to barely win but a number from states that don’t have a first ballot requirement become faithless, and the back room deal gives the nomination to Jeb! with his 3 percent in the polls, and enough people leave the party in disgust to send it the way of the Whigs.
.
Sure, the short-term consequences are the same as 2 and 3, and not good, but the long term consequences would quite probably burn the system down.
I think you’ve gotten so close to the primary that you’re having trouble seeing the broader picture.
.
You’re interested in gaming out primary and convention scenarios, and that’s fine, but pull up a couple thousand feet and consider them *in context*, eh?
.
If Trump doesn’t win the primary, do you think his supporters will go to Bush/Christie/Kasich? Perhaps Cruz/Rubio? .
They seem to embrace a “throw ’em all out!” mentality, and *none* of the other candidates appeal to that demographic effectively. My gut tells me a majority are “Trump or stay home” – which opens the door to someone else peeling them off…
.
So .. in your above scenarios 1-4 .. the GOP go into the general weakened – the base either absent or distrusting of / disgusted with the candidate .. and that’s the *good* news?
.
Yeah ..
.
You are entirely mistaken about *understanding* my position. I would *prefer* that it not “all burn” .. I just don’t think it’s avoidable .. and nothing in your small-ball scenarios presents a reason to change that viewpoint, eh?
.
Mew
Skip: Fair enough, I did miss that — though we’ll have to see the actual effect that the early primaries have on national polls and later primaries before anyone can gauge its likelihood. If Trump doesn’t win any early states, he might go the way of Giuliani. But the more he wins, the more likely your scenario becomes, I admit.
.
acat: If you’re right that a majority of Trump’s supporters are “Trump or stay home,” and Trump loses the primary, then who on earth could peel them off? I mean, am I misunderstanding what “stay home” means? And we don’t, in fact, know what effect the disengagement of Trump supporters might have. If I’m right that many of them usually don’t participate in the process, then their total withdrawal might just reset the board to near-normal…and I maintain that we have several candidates who could win the moderates and independents from Clinton in that case. Rubio and Christie are probably the most likely, but after his debate performances, I now think Cruz could do it too.
.
Also, forgive me for misunderstanding your attitude. I mean, I just naturally assume that when someone says “Let it all burn,” as you did in your first comment, they mean “Let it all burn,” not “Que sera, sera, and it probably will all burn.” But that’s me, trying to take people at their word.
Demos – you’re still not quite getting it ..
.
I am not sanguine about everything burning, and am actively spreading fire suppression foam wherever I can .. the candidates I expected to have the mindset *and* skills to join that activity are out.
.
You may be right about the mix “adjusting to normal” .. but *again* that’s the tips of the leaves of the trees in the forest.
.
Let’s suppose Jeb/Christie/Kasich wins it all .. *what difference will it make*, eh?
.
Mew
It’s very easy.
.
The first part is called vengeance.
The Republican party has been betraying conservative values for nearly my entire life. I’m mad as Hell about it, and I’m not going to take it any more. I’m no longer going to vote for the lesser of two evils “because otherwise the democrats win”.
Screw them. If they want my vote, they can either earn it, or go piss up a rope.
Not to mention that burning the corrupt organisation down and salting the earth would be intensely emotionally satisfying. I would enjoy that very much.
.
The second part is that we’re standing on a precipice.
The fecal matter is impacting the rotating air circulation device.
In Foreign Policy our credibility and the alliances built up over decades are in shambles.
Our government is only sustaining its profligate spending because the Federal Reserve is loaning it the money at zero percent interest. Our credit is maxed, the current reality is unsustainable, it’s only getting to get worse, and nobody in the government wants to do a damned thing about it. Interest rates will return to mean, or inflation will undermine our society.
There are leftist insurrections cropping up all across the country, with the active encouragement of one political party, and the other unwilling to do anything about it.
We have a Supreme Court with the audacity to redefine marriage, and they’ve not been impeached for their hubris. Instead, one political party celebrates, and the other acts like their hands are tied.
We have a president who feels he’s above the law, one party celebrates, and the other looks forward to using the precedent.
10% of Mexico’s population is illegally living in our country, destroying local economies, collapsing public institutions, and spiking crime rates, and almost no politician has any problem with this.
That’s just the beginning of the laundry list, btw.
.
Third, we live in a country that elected Obama.
Twice.
You can make an argument that the first time was due to rational ignorance and the media seeking out to get him elected. But there’s no excuse for the second time.
Our country has become decadent. Only a free people can be moral, but only a moral people can remain free.
Over half of our countrymen yearn for a dictator. I’d prefer the one they get discomforts them at least as much as the thought discomforts me.
Trump is a buffoon.
But he is a competent manager, is unlikely to do any lasting damage, might roll back some of the political parties colluding against the citizens they purportedly represent, and might shock people on the margins to reject the authoritarian trend.
.
I’ll vote Cruz before Trump, but those are the only two remaining candidates that I’m willing to vote for.
Yeah, we’ve been round about your first point, and I completely disagree with you, so we’ll just leave that alone. I agree with the beginning of your third point, right up to “Trump is a buffoon,” and then disagree without exception to everything after that. Yes, even the “competent manager” bit.
.
As for your second point…while I agree with your diagnosis of the problems, I fail to see how Trump cures any of them. A man who has the foreign relations attitude of Groundskeeper Willie (“I haven’t a clue who they are, and I’m not willin’ to learn!”) will not improve foreign relations or restore American standing in the world. A man who talks about getting Mexico to pay for his border wall is going to have very little impact on illegal immigration — assuming he’s serious and not just throwing red meat to the crowd, which I think he is. And since I don’t believe that Trump’s conversion from big-government liberal to fiscally-prudent conservative is real, I don’t see how electing him is going to be any better than electing Clinton or Sanders when it comes to reforming our shambles of a fiscal situation, bringing the Supreme Court to heel, or stopping the leftist march through the institutions.
.
And if you want a president who doesn’t think he’s above the law, then your advocacy for Trump is REALLY silly.
And once again, you’re talking about trees, not a forest, nor many forests ..
.
The point I made earlier, which you evidently didn’t grok, was that Trump – *by failing* will highlight that the problem isn’t the *individual*, it’s the *system itself*.
.
The related point, which you also seem to not grok, is that Bernie or Hillary getting in – which is more likely if Trump fails and takes enough of his supporters with him into a third-party run .. or if Trump succeeds and the D.C. JV squad repeat John B. Anderson – is that the forest will burn because they *cannot help* but to push too far, eh?
.
Mew
It’s not Obama’s experience that was the issue. It was/is his leftwing worldview.
That’s oversimplifying.
.
Obama’s left-wing worldview and charisma made him dangerous.
.
Obama’s inexperience is why he hasn’t gone *nearly* as far as he (or his puppetmasters, if you prefer) would have liked.
.
Tell me again how Cruz and/or Rubio have the experience – both are freshman senators, neither have any significant executive-branch experience – to *not* fail *exactly* the same way, eh?
.
Mew
For one neither of them is anywhere near as arrogant as Obama; if things aren’t working for them, they will bring in new advisers and listen to them.
For two, neither will get anywhere near the degree of media fawning that Obama gets. There will be no one on national TV (well, Rubio may have some cheerleaders on FOX, but that’s it) telling them they’re doing a great job when in fact they’re making a mess of things.
I live in California; my presidential vote is essentially meaningless. But if Trump’s the nominee, I’m voting third party or not voting for president.
Oh? Have you got evidence to back that up?
.
I mean, it sounds great and all, I’d like to see it be a real thing, I just don’t see more than assertions here.
.
Moe’s assertions I will accept. Yours … need cites.
.
Mew
p.s. My vote in Illinois won’t count much either – but a vote against *both* parties will be more of a signal than a blank … and a blank is better than voting for an idiot, even if he (or she) is allegedly *our* idiot.