…Which is typically not a thing, one way or the other. But this is the 2016 primary season, which is apparently going to be the Monkey’s Paw answer to the I wish that we had a primary that really meant something for once, you know what I mean? wish. It’s like 2000, when I wished that a Presidential election would go down to the wire instead of being obvious as soon as the polls closed.
I HAVE NEVER MADE THAT WISH AGAIN.
…Moving along: there are twenty three delegates at sake, open primary, 50% winner-take-all, 20% to get delegates. No polling, of course. Why on earth should we start polling races now in a hotly contested primary? Yes, I’m being unfair. Still. There has been a lack of planning and it actually matters right now. Results here, because AoSHQ Decision Desk is obsessive that way.
Moe Lane
PS: I don’t know who wins. People are guessing Marco Rubio, but there’s almost nothing backing that up besides the fact that he did a campaign event there and that was probably because Rubio’s making a heavy play for Florida. He certainly needs the win, so I guess we’ll see.
And with 5.9% of the vote in, Rubio is sitting at 80.4% and Decision Desk projects him winning.
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So Rubio has now won a primary in a territory that doesn’t vote for President, and a state where the last Republican to carry it was Richard Nixon. But that’s 23 delegates that Trump doesn’t get any of, and if that RCP piece on Puerto Rico and how its preferences might relate to Puerto Ricans in Florida, might be a good sign for him there. Which is a good sign for the forces of good.
The best thing for the forces of good is for Rubio to get out. But the Establishment would rather entertain fantasies of 1920s back rooms. As if they could put the 3rd place finisher in as nominee and that not destroy the party.
I think the whole brokered convention thing is overstated. Even if it happens, there will be a first ballot, no one gets a majority, then Cruz offers Rubio the VP position, Rubio tells his delegates “vote for Cruz on the second ballot”, and Cruz becomes the nominee on the second ballot. Done.
If that’s the case, why doesn’t Rubio say, “Nominate me for VP, and I’ll endorse you as the hope to beat Trump” now?
He can’t win. There is literally no path to nomination for Rubio that doesn’t involve smoke-filled rooms. But he seems quite ok with that.
What makes you think he *hasn’t* said something like that?
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More importantly, given the bad blood the Cruz and Rubio supporters created .. what makes you think a Cruz/Rubio ticket would do better than, say, Cruz/Kasich ?
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Mew
As the ancient Chinese curse says: “May you live in interesting times.”
The most fun election year I ever had? 1984, which was also the least competitive general election in my lifetime.
Yeah, well, I was on the other side for that one.
My two favs were 2010 and 2014, although 2002 had its moments that I didn’t have the experience to properly appreciate at the time.
1994 was waaay more fun than 2010 and 2014 for me, mostly because it was almost completely unexpected. Fox News wasn’t around yet, so nobody had even covered the possibility of a landslide.
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Every single anchor looked like someone had run over their dog, except for Peter Jennings, who just got really, really angry at the American people.