I stopped doing this in the middle of 2010, once it became clear that the real question of 2010 was how many hits to the head with the snake the Democrats were going to take before it was all over. As the answer was “a lot,” I feel that this was a wise prioritization of my time.
But it’s a new cycle, so let’s look at the numbers – both the latest ones, and May’s. Short version: Republicans are scoring better in nine out of ten topics that Rasmussen charts, and there’s a ten point lead on the economy. Which, not incidentally, is the most burning issue for Americans these days.
| July 2011 | May 2011 | ||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Dem | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Economy | 35% | 45% | (10) | 42% | 46% | (4) | (6) |
| Health Care | 43% | 46% | (3) | 43% | 42% | 1 | (4) |
| Education | 42% | 38% | 4 | 42% | 35% | 7 | (3) |
| Iraq | 37% | 41% | (4) | 40% | 42% | (2) | (2) |
| Immigration | 33% | 47% | (14) | 39% | 43% | (4) | (10) |
| Social Security | 40% | 42% | (2) | 40% | 39% | 1 | (3) |
| Afghanistan | 37% | 42% | (5) | 40% | 42% | (2) | (3) |
| Government Ethics | 35% | 38% | (3) | 39% | 35% | 4 | (7) |
| National Security | 37% | 45% | (8) | 39% | 47% | (8) | (0) |
| Taxes | 40% | 46% | (6) | 41% | 42% | (1) | (5) |
What’s really interesting, though, is the way that Democrats did consistently worse on pretty much every front; and if I was a Democratic adviser and I had any time to spare from worrying about the economy numbers I’d be worrying about the immigration ones. Admittedly, it’s still sixteen months before the election; only… people said things like that a lot in the 2010 election cycle, too. A trend can develop out this early; back in 2009 this was about the time where people really started taking seriously the idea that the GOP could actually maybe be in a position where they could delicately hint at the possibility that they could, you know, retake the House or something in less than forty years.
And, with the partial exception of taxes, the numbers then aren’t notably better for Democrats than the numbers now.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
42% to 38% of those polled prefer Dems on education? WTF?
I like to think of the education numbers as proof of how far Democrats have destroyed education in this country.
This may be a roundabout answer to your WTF question, but here goes. In 2010, Repulicat Rich Iott was running for Congress in Ohio. As you probably won’t remember, he was a civil war enthusiast as well as war reinactor. A couple pictures surfaced of him in a Nazi uniform as part of his war reinacting play acting. The other side pointed to these photos and said “look, he’s an honest to goodness real life Nazi”. I was talking about this with a friend of mine that votes in that district and he said, I kid you not “if only there was some way to know for sure”. Based with fact on one side and inuendo on the other, the vast majority of voters are confused and unsure. I am never surprised when the majority of people hold wierd opinions (on education, in this case). I have little to no faith in the average voter as typified by my friend in 2010. I’m sure Arnold Shwarzenegger lost votes back in the day because some Californians believed he was an actual assassin robot sent from the future.
I take your point, but as it happens I’m a medieval re-enactor (SCA) myself; I remember that incident damn well, and Marcy Kaptur’s on my list for 2012 for letting her minions do that. 🙂