Lots of people talking about Wisconsin and whether or not it’s in play. Truth be told, I don’t know: the WI GOP is pretty freaking hardcore these days, but the Democrats will pour whatever it takes to keep that firewall*. And this map is why:
(Via 270toWin.com)
The above is the Democrats Midwest Collapse nightmare scenario: it represents the Republicans running the table in that region. I personally think that we’re good in Indiana, will be good in Iowa, and probably be good in Ohio… but if Wisconsin flips then Michigan probably won’t be too far behind. And note that if that happens it doesn’t matter at all what happens in Virginia, Colorado, and/or New Hampshire.
My basic take on this: this pick does not guarantee the Midwest for the Republicans, but it does guarantee that the Democrats are going to have to put resources into yet another geographical region. Resources that they may end up not having.
Moe Lane
*They should have poured in more into the recalls and gotten the state party under control, the ninnies.
I believe a collapse by the Democrats is coming. Not sure where and how big.
They put everything they could into Wisconsin but they ran out of other people’s money. That’s the problem when an incompetent clown is in charge of the country.
Curious – for this map that if Obama carries NC and one NE vote, it’s a 269-269 tie. That would put incredible pressure on the electors.
Romney will pick up VA and CO as well, and PA will be…close. Although I now think Obama will get over 200 EVs, Romney will win with over 300EVs. That is, if Obama allows the election to happen.
I doubt Romney could win CO. The GOP has been in utter disrepair there for a while. It’s a state that SHOULD be lead-cinch Red, but organization has been a disgrace.
I do think VA goes red though. I don’t think the rest of the state loses to the DC burbs, and NC going blue in 08 was an aberration caused by HopenChange. The factors of that are not repeating.
I don’t buy the ‘great demographic shift’ argument of the Lamestream Media. I also don’t like the Karl Rove write off huge chunks of the electorate strategy that gives LSM that meme. But I think Ryan does help broaden the geographic appeal so that at least 40 states are put in play.
There is a good chance Heather Wilson running for Senate and GOP Governor Susana Martinez could take New Mexico Republican. There are a lot of conservative Hispanics. Just need to beat the hippie/Santa Fe/Taos and welfare elements.
Colorado is a crap-shoot with uber-lib Boulder/Denver, californicated rich towns, and university towns versus the plains and working areas of the state
If WI, MI and IA all go red, it is actually plausible that MN could, too, though I don’t see a scenario where MN would put Romney over the top. The thing with MN this year is that there really isn’t anything to drive Democrat turnout: Sen. Klobuchar seems to be reasonably safe, and there is only one House race that is looking competitive right now. Meanwhile, there are two referendums that will drive conservative turnout: a same-sex marriage amendment and a voter ID law.
I don’t think it matters if Romney wins MN; as I say, he’d have to win WI, MI and IA for that to happen, I think, and if that’s the case, it’s a rout, not a nail-biter. But it would be nice to see, since that hasn’t happened in my lifetime.
I live in Massachusetts where Romney resides. He won’t win this state because he didn’t do a very good job as governor. His hands were tied because both house/senate is strongly democratic. However, New Hampshire, where he has a summer home, has a great shot of going red. Senator Kelly Ayotte(REP) is very popular and Romney is well liked in New Hampshire……
Whoa!! You guys think we’ll win OH and FL? That seems iffy at this point. I hope you’re right. What about Virginia? A long time GOP stronghold, but it went blue in 2008. NC should be a lock as is IN. IA – the last two Ras polls showed Romney in the lead but within margin of error. What about PA? You guys really think MI could go red? Man I hope Mitt and Paul win it, but boy it’s gonna be a nail-biter.
Umm, OU812? I’d like to know what polling or anecdotal stuff from FL or MI you see that says Romney/Ryan won’t pick ’em up.
Florida has been trending Red for years. Retirees seem to be funny about wanting to fix social security and medicare, and they seem willing to accept reductions to get there.
Obama’s popularity in Ohio was at an all time high in 2008. The State went quite reddish in 2010, and went for the GOP both in 2000 and 2004. I don’t see a significant shift away from the GOP in the meantime – like NC, OH-2008 may have been a one-off.
Do you have some other reason to believe this will be a nail-biter?
Mew
Horse race Schmorse race. Welcome to a campaign about the future of America. If everything happens for a reason, maybe Obama’s win over a more competent Hillary Clinton (I think the financial crisis doomed McCain and the Republicans in 2008) was just history’s way of getting us to a place where we could stare at the fiscal cliff head on. A competent, politically savvy lefty like Clinton would have bailed on healthcare as too risky, and none of this would be happening right now.
acat – I’m a general pessimist. I wish you are 100% correct, but I’m scared to death that somehow we’ll have issues this November. Assuming we even have elections – that they don’t try to pull a “Reichstag fire” or other rally-around-the-president or emergency moment. I’ve spent time in Ohio. Southern Ohio is conservative. Northern Ohio is Democrat and they beat down Kasich’s version of Scott Walker’s bill which is what makes me pessimistic about that state. Seems like it all depends on what people eat for breakfast the morning on which they vote. What about Virginia? Think it’ll go red?
civil truth: Obama doesn’t need the one elector from Nebraska to get to a tie, it would be a tie just with Michigan flipping from the above scenario.
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Can you imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the part of Democrats if the Electoral College ends in a tie and it’s up to the House of Representatives to elect Romney? And we thought their whining in 2000 was bad…