Author: Moe Lane

Contra Naomi Klein… dystopian fiction was popular in the 1970s, too.

This is rather amusing, in its way:
Dystopian fiction is hot right now, with countless books and movies featuring decadent oligarchs, brutal police states, ecological collapse, and ordinary citizens biting and clawing just to survive. For bestselling author Naomi Klein, all this gloom is a worrying sign.
...because Naomi Klein apparently has no idea whatsoever that the 1970s was probably the Golden Age of Dystopian fiction, Eco-collapse edition.  Including, I might add, a lot of overconfident predictions about global warming that never actually happened.  In fact, pretty much none of the things that were worried about then - overpopulation, choking pollution, the loss of every species less hardy than the cockroach, nuclear war, mass famine, running out of oil, running out of water, running out of air, and of course the obligatory dictatorships made up of the authors' least favorite American social groups - didn't actually happen, either. Shoot, even the Soviet Union fell down and went boom just as soon as Ronald Reagan kicked it in the groin. And so disaster will probably be averted here, too. Oh, maybe it won't. Maybe we really are doomed this time. But we've been doomed before; and it's surprising that Naomi Klein won't at least nod to the past confident assertions of disaster.  Although it should not surprise me that anyone with as high an opinion of Margaret Atwood - a woman who was spectactularly wrong in predicting future history in The Handmaid's Tale - might be somewhat deficient in other aspects of this particular literary genre. On the other hand, Ms. Klein got me to post something here after two years! So, go her. Via Instapundit. Moe Lane

Escape from New York.

Name: Escape from New York

Type: Movie

Written in: 1981

Set in: 1998

Why it's a dystopia: The country has a federal police service AND has turned Manhattan into a maximum security prison.  Worse, the Soviet Union's still around.

Why it's significant: Snake Plissken is an iconic character; plus, the shock visuals that resulted from juxtiposing familiar American icons and an aura of decay had an impact on subsequent dystopian cinema.  Which is a slightly pretentious way of saying 'people liked the film.'

What happened? Well, obviously, we didn't create a federal police agency of this sort, and we didn't make Manhattan into a maximum security prison.  But that's not why I'm noting this: after all, Carpenter's somewhat jaundiced worldview about contemporary American societal trends can be seen more pointedly in his sequel Escape from L.A.* No, the reason I'm pointing this one out is because we're all getting older, which means that the population is increasingly one that has no real memory of what it was like to have the Soviet Union looming over us.  The casual assumption that the USSR would be around and kicking in the next generation was utterly unremarkable at the time - which, given what we know about the nature of Marxists, implies some pretty dark deeds, in... deed.

Indeed, this is one of the more hopeful assumptions.  Far too much science fiction of the time period assumed that the Soviets were going to end up kicking our butts.

Moe Lane

*A movie which is notable partially for that, but mostly for being an egregious piece of sh*t whenever Bruce Campbell wasn't on the screen.

Escape from New York.

Name: Escape from New York

Type: Movie

Written in: 1981

Set in: 1998

Why it's a dystopia: The country has a federal police service AND has turned Manhattan into a maximum security prison.  Worse, the Soviet Union's still around.

Why it's significant: Snake Plissken is an iconic character; plus, the shock visuals that resulted from juxtiposing familiar American icons and an aura of decay had an impact on subsequent dystopian cinema.  Which is a slightly pretentious way of saying 'people liked the film.'

What happened? Well, obviously, we didn't create a federal police agency of this sort, and we didn't make Manhattan into a maximum security prison.  But that's not why I'm noting this: after all, Carpenter's somewhat jaundiced worldview about contemporary American societal trends can be seen more pointedly in his sequel Escape from L.A.* No, the reason I'm pointing this one out is because we're all getting older, which means that the population is increasingly one that has no real memory of what it was like to have the Soviet Union looming over us.  The casual assumption that the USSR would be around and kicking in the next generation was utterly unremarkable at the time - which, given what we know about the nature of Marxists, implies some pretty dark deeds, in... deed.

Indeed, this is one of the more hopeful assumptions.  Far too much science fiction of the time period assumed that the Soviets were going to end up kicking our butts.

Moe Lane

*A movie which is notable partially for that, but mostly for being an egregious piece of sh*t whenever Bruce Campbell wasn't on the screen.

"Apocalypse Not."

That is the title of a slightly surprisingly good article from Wired, slamming the stunningly bad track record of various groups when it comes to predictions of looming catastrophe - and that 'surprisingly good' is not meant to be a reflection on the magazine; more like a reflection on the oddity of finding people willing to deprive our modern apocalyptic cultists of their 'fun' via the administration of objective reality.  Besides, author Matt Ridley is to be commended for taking the next logical step of bringing up global warming, particularly since the first batch of Great Prophecies of Climate Change DOOM are past their sell-by date (Ridley even calls out IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri for declaring in '07 that '12 was the 'tipping point'). 

Just... one quibble.

...should we worry or not about the warming climate? It is far too binary a question. The lesson of failed past predictions of ecological apocalypse is not that nothing was happening but that the middle-ground possibilities were too frequently excluded from consideration. In the climate debate, we hear a lot from those who think disaster is inexorable if not inevitable, and a lot from those who think it is all a hoax. We hardly ever allow the moderate “lukewarmers” a voice: those who suspect that the net positive feedbacks from water vapor in the atmosphere are low, so that we face only 1 to 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century; that the Greenland ice sheet may melt but no faster than its current rate of less than 1 percent per century; that net increases in rainfall (and carbon dioxide concentration) may improve agricultural productivity; that ecosystems have survived sudden temperature lurches before; and that adaptation to gradual change may be both cheaper and less ecologically damaging than a rapid and brutal decision to give up fossil fuels cold turkey.

The 'lukewarmers' actually do have a voice; it's just that we've mostly discovered that the only place where we can be heard is over on the climate skeptic side.  I know a lot of skeptics who qualify as 'lukewarmers' - in fact, I suspect that if you go to a climate skeptic conference and poll the attendees you will find that pretty much everyone will agree with at least one lukewarming position up there, and that a majority might even agree with all of them.  Frankly, it would not shock me to hear that we're seeing something like the Medieval Warm Period; but it would probably shock the climate change people to hear that I am not upset about the planet becoming slightly warmer and wetter.  Which is to say, 'slightly more hospitable to life.'

I note all of this because, as was said earlier, the first set of Predictions of DOOM on the climate are coming false.  I expect to be whaling on the expression bad climate science predictions in popular media for, well, the rest of my life...

Moe Lane

"Apocalypse Not."

That is the title of a slightly surprisingly good article from Wired, slamming the stunningly bad track record of various groups when it comes to predictions of looming catastrophe - and that 'surprisingly good' is not meant to be a reflection on the magazine; more like a reflection on the oddity of finding people willing to deprive our modern apocalyptic cultists of their 'fun' via the administration of objective reality.  Besides, author Matt Ridley is to be commended for taking the next logical step of bringing up global warming, particularly since the first batch of Great Prophecies of Climate Change DOOM are past their sell-by date (Ridley even calls out IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri for declaring in '07 that '12 was the 'tipping point'). 

Just... one quibble.

...should we worry or not about the warming climate? It is far too binary a question. The lesson of failed past predictions of ecological apocalypse is not that nothing was happening but that the middle-ground possibilities were too frequently excluded from consideration. In the climate debate, we hear a lot from those who think disaster is inexorable if not inevitable, and a lot from those who think it is all a hoax. We hardly ever allow the moderate “lukewarmers” a voice: those who suspect that the net positive feedbacks from water vapor in the atmosphere are low, so that we face only 1 to 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century; that the Greenland ice sheet may melt but no faster than its current rate of less than 1 percent per century; that net increases in rainfall (and carbon dioxide concentration) may improve agricultural productivity; that ecosystems have survived sudden temperature lurches before; and that adaptation to gradual change may be both cheaper and less ecologically damaging than a rapid and brutal decision to give up fossil fuels cold turkey.

The 'lukewarmers' actually do have a voice; it's just that we've mostly discovered that the only place where we can be heard is over on the climate skeptic side.  I know a lot of skeptics who qualify as 'lukewarmers' - in fact, I suspect that if you go to a climate skeptic conference and poll the attendees you will find that pretty much everyone will agree with at least one lukewarming position up there, and that a majority might even agree with all of them.  Frankly, it would not shock me to hear that we're seeing something like the Medieval Warm Period; but it would probably shock the climate change people to hear that I am not upset about the planet becoming slightly warmer and wetter.  Which is to say, 'slightly more hospitable to life.'

I note all of this because, as was said earlier, the first set of Predictions of DOOM on the climate are coming false.  I expect to be whaling on the expression bad climate science predictions in popular media for, well, the rest of my life...

Moe Lane

A sort of observation, sort of slam: Logan’s Run.

This would be a comment on the movie, not the book (I haven't read the book). Watch this clip: notice what's missing? Yup. People who aren't white. A somewhat common theme in 1970s and 1980s-style post-apocalyptic film, alas: apparently, Caucasians are apparently particularly prone to survive the End Times. Either that, or Hollywood had a bad habit of not hiring minorities for crowd scenes, let alone supporting roles. The application of irony in this is left as an exercise for the interested reader. Moe Lane PS: Yes, I know: it hasn't happened yet, so we don't know that it won't turn out this way. Still, I think that we've safely avoided a world where the young are running it (and apparently, literally into the ground)...

A sort of observation, sort of slam: Logan’s Run.

This would be a comment on the movie, not the book (I haven't read the book). Watch this clip: notice what's missing? Yup. People who aren't white. A somewhat common theme in 1970s and 1980s-style post-apocalyptic film, alas: apparently, Caucasians are apparently particularly prone to survive the End Times. Either that, or Hollywood had a bad habit of not hiring minorities for crowd scenes, let alone supporting roles. The application of irony in this is left as an exercise for the interested reader. Moe Lane PS: Yes, I know: it hasn't happened yet, so we don't know that it won't turn out this way. Still, I think that we've safely avoided a world where the young are running it (and apparently, literally into the ground)...

A very minor note: GURPS OGRE.

It's not particularly earth-shattering or anything, but while consulting my copy of GURPS Ogre in preparation for the release of the game later this year I noted in the book's timeline that this year (2012) is supposed to be the one where the USA runs out of oil.

Which is, of course, not even remotely true.  But it's based on assessments that a lot of people took seriously ten to thirty years ago - and, to be fair, those people were generally acting in good faith when they received the information, even if the people that disseminated it may not have been - so expect a rash of curiously-dated gaming and SF material to intrude on one's consciousness.  So it goes.

A very minor note: GURPS OGRE.

It's not particularly earth-shattering or anything, but while consulting my copy of GURPS Ogre in preparation for the release of the game later this year I noted in the book's timeline that this year (2012) is supposed to be the one where the USA runs out of oil.

Which is, of course, not even remotely true.  But it's based on assessments that a lot of people took seriously ten to thirty years ago - and, to be fair, those people were generally acting in good faith when they received the information, even if the people that disseminated it may not have been - so expect a rash of curiously-dated gaming and SF material to intrude on one's consciousness.  So it goes.

Not really one (Branch Point)

Sorry, folks: I did have one to go over - Branch Point by Mona Clee (alt-history written by somebody who was perhaps a little too upset over what happened to Bill Clinton)... but then I realized that the 'why it's relevant' would have been 'because it made Moe waste two bucks at the used book store over a decade ago.' That probably isn't enough.

So let me just cheat and note something (SPOILERS):

...if you go back in time to the 19th century and tell a bunch of RUSSIANS about Hitler, and CONVINCE them, they are not going to wait patiently for seventy years and then buy all of his paintings, thus keeping him out of politics. No... no, the Russians will instead do the practical thing one expects from functional paranoids and simply kill Hitler's grandparents. Although it's hard to say that 'paranoid' is a fair way to describe Russians; they have empirical proof that everybody really is out to get them...