Tag: 2012 election

#rsrh “Sen. Beige.”

That’s what Patrick McIlheran over at RCP called retiring – in more ways than one – Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl, largely on the grounds that during his tenure Kohl has done… nothing.

Nothing at all.

Which would normally be enough to make him one of my favorite Senators – the more of them that can’t be bothered to do anything, the better* – but Patrick also notes this fun little detail:

Obama was going to run in a Wisconsin where his side’s leading local face was a senator who never offended anyone. He will instead run in a Wisconsin where the face of his party will be beet-red, occasionally mobbing the Capitol by the tens of thousands, and shouting for higher taxes — over and over, in a campaign season that drags on for two sleepless years.

This reflects a paradox that has not yet even been really noticed, let alone resolved: the man who ran for election in 2008 on a platform of Change will be stuck running for re-election in 2012 on a platform of Don’t Change – while still somehow having to stay true to the original Change message.  And said message of Change will undoubtedly be appropriated by whatever Republican gets the nomination, which means that the real message from Obama is going to be Change that is not the Change of four years ago, nor the Change that my opponents are embracing – but is the Change that is nonetheless the spiritual equivalent of the Change four years ago.  And if you buy that, it’d be great, because the alternative is me running on my record.  Which sucks.

Hmm.  Doesn’t really fit on a bumper sticker, that.

 

*Particularly the Democratic ones: if the 111th Congress taught us anything, it’s that Senate Democrats should not be trusted to come in out of the rain without also somehow tripling the deficit.

Advice for Mitch Daniels.

There’s been a fairly large amount of insider-buzz over whether or not Indiana governor Mitch Daniels is going to run for President; he is widely expected to, but continues to indicate that he has not yet made up his mind.  This is starting to bubble over into other political arenas – the latest speculation is over whether Governors Scott Walker and Chris Christie are or are not ready to endorse Daniels, should he run – so it should probably be addressed.

I need to be delicate, here: the indications are that Governor Daniels is hesitating because of the effect that running for President will have on his family life.  Specifically, that the publicity that will result from running will be widespread, pervasive, and not subject to any kind of delicacy or consideration… which is a too-polite way of saying “If Mitch Daniels runs, Democratic activists will deliberately attempt to soul-rape his family*.”  If this is truly a worry for Gov. Daniels, I of course cannot criticize his unwillingness to put his family through that.  For that matter, if he and his family are ready to handle the attacks that are even now being prepared for them by the Other Side then I can’t criticize that, either.

But if Gov. Daniels is well and truly not sure whether his family is ready for that, well, I would advise the governor then that he already knows the answer to the question “Should Mitch Daniels run?”  It’s just that it’s a bitter answer for a man hoping to run for President.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*Because that’s what they do.

#rsrh Someone remind me in July…

…to look at the quarterly financial reports for Obama for America.  Right now the numbers are meaningless; it’s completely unreasonable to expect that the President could raise the same amount of money in the first quarter of 2007 (almost $26 million) that he did in a portion of the first quarter of 2011 ($2.3 million).  However, it is reasonable to compare 2nd quarter 2007 ($33 million) to 2nd quarter 2011; you see, when the Obama campaign brags about the $750 million that they raised last go-round (and their plans to surpass that with $1 billion this go-round) they’re including the roughly $350 million that they raised (and spent) on the primary. If the Obama campaign is truly serious about bettering that total, that means that they have to better their total now, which is incidentally a period where the President is not actually competing against any sort of meaningful primary opponent.  If they don’t, they won’t hit $750 million.  They’ll be lucky to even hit $500 million, in fact.

Unless the Obama campaign thinks that they can raise roughly two and a half times as much in the general election in 2012 as they did in the general election in 2008…]

Moe Lane

#rsrh Great Googley Moogley… it is APRIL, ABC News.

It is April of 2011.  We do not actually need to have everybody and his/her brother/sister declaring for the freaking Republican nomination, simply because Barack Obama needed to declare as early as possible that he was running so that he can get a head start on raising money.

I understand that you’re bored with Obama already, ABC – even if you’d rather gargle lava than admit it.  But that’s not my party’s fault. We’ll get around to having a nomination race on our own terms, and in our own sweet time.  Until then, go report on inflation/Syria/high energy prices/high food prices/unemployment… ah.  I see the problem, there.

Sheesh.

Moe Lane

PS: And if you don’t like reporting on Donald Trump, well, stop.

Pew Research: 53% of Americans don’t know GOP candidates.

This is, of course, highly unsurprising: it is April of 2011.  While the true start of election cycles have been notoriously creeping further and further back for some time now, the major reason why anybody’s talking seriously about the 2012 election at this point is because President Obama rather desperately announced exceptionally early so that he could officially fund-raise*.  This means that those parts of the media that are actually covering the election are more or less stuck pretending that it’s September of 2011 (which is still a little early, but such is the custom of the country); after all, the President thinks that it’s election time, so shouldn’t everybody else?

…Apparently not.  Pew reports that currently 20% of the population is following the GOP Presidential nomination process closely, and that 4% consider it to be the top story.  For comparison: both numbers are ranked sixth; the top stories continue to be the Japan earthquake (38% following closely, 26% consider top story) and oil/gas prices (53%/22%).  Combine that with the surprising detail that the media isn’t actually covering the election that much (2% of the media coverage focuses on the GOP primaries; the top media coverage is easily the deficit/national debt at 31%), and you end up with what is a spectacularly… no, not “uninformed.”  What we have is a spectacularly uninterested electorate when it comes to the 2012 elections.

Which means?  First, it means that people should not be surprised when various polling reveals that the Republican front-runners are all folks that voters have already heard of. Second, it means that anybody who wants to tell you that the current state of the race is an indicator of anything, including the current state of the race, is almost certainly operating with an agenda.  Which certainly includes me; only my agenda is to get people to stop talking about the GOP nomination (which is what the Democrats want us to be focusing on) and get back to talking about jobs, the deficit, and the economy (which is what the Democrats don’t want us to focus on)…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

(Via Drudge)

*Which is, by the way, what he’s doing today instead of visiting areas of the country that are: devastated by tornadoes; and increasingly unlikely to vote for him in 2012.

The Quiet Man.

My friend and RS colleague Erick Erickson has just put up a post noting that former Governor Tim Pawlenty has picked up a top-notch campaign manager in Nick Ayers.  Erick rightly notes that this is a strong indicator that you have to take Pawlenty seriously as a Presidential candidate; Ayers was actively courted by everybody, and it’s unlikely that he’d sign on with a campaign that couldn’t win.  What I’d like to do here, though, is use this opportunity to point out a video from last year that might help explain why this campaign should be taken as seriously as Erick now is.

Continue reading The Quiet Man.

#rsrh My (semi-)professional advice on declaring for President.

Wait.  Byron’s right to imply here that it’s far too soon for GOP candidates to formally run for Preisdent; it’d make much more sense to hold off on a formal announcement until… September of this year, I think.  October, if people can hold out that long.

Mind you, starting exploratory committees and building a public presence are both fine; but a formal announcement isn’t a good idea.  The President is starting early because Obama needs all the time he can get to raise money; and because running for office beats all hollow trying to justify his record (which is frankly horrible) or actually being President (which he is frankly bad at).  There’s no need to emulate him, particularly since being a formal candidate at this point merely gives Democrats someone to aim at…

Moe Lane

Tim Pawlenty’s new, entertaining, campaign ad.

(H/T: @jaketapper) Tim Pawlenty’s got a new campaign ad out (“A New Direction“) in response to the President’s formal announcement that he’s running again; and it features… Paul Krugman.  Paul Krugman, criticizing Washington for giving up on jobs.

I don’t care who you are: that’s just funny, right there.  If you’ve lost Paul Krugman…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Tim Pawlenty’s site is here.

PPS: Also: “How can America win the future if we’re losing the present?”  I may not know who the nominee is going to be – but that’s going to be the question of the campaign, right there.

#rsrh I’m going to go out on a limb.

The President will not raise a billion dollars for the 2012 election.  At least, not without half of his campaign staff being indicted for various fraud-related practices in 2013.

Yes, I know that the man raised almost $750 million in 2008.  The economy wasn’t in the tank back then, either.  And the base hadn’t had their guy break his promises to them on a daily basis for three years.  And the populace in general hadn’t had three years’ worth of Change That You Can Believe In, or whatever the phrase was back then…