Looks like Obama’s campaign schedule is pretty much clear for the rest of the year.
[UPDATE] Gah! It’s like a glitch in my brain. McDonnell, McDonnell, McDonnell.
That was the response of one of my colleagues from the news that McDonnell has taken a commanding lead in the VA race (and the news that Christie continues to dominate Corzine); while there’s still three months to go before the election, and while Deeds did win the primary despite being the underdog, these numbers aren’t good for the Democrats. They are also roughly similar to last weeks SurveyUSA poll, which PPP itself notes:
The problem is all in who’s motivated and planning to turn out- McCain supporters are at a considerably higher rate than Obama’s, and that means a healthy McDonnell lead.
Last week I was skeptical of SurveyUSA’s poll showing an electorate that voted for John McCain 52-43…but we actually found it at a 52-41 McCain advantage.
None of this should be surprising: it’s an off-election year, the President will not be on the ticket, the economy is widely and accurately considered to be awful, and the current ruling parties of both states are widely and accurately seen to be part of the problem. Deed’s specific problem is that he got the nomination by not being Moran or McAuliffe… which wouldn’t have been a problem at all if the VA GOP hadn’t decided to run somebody credible. But the VA GOP did, and now comes the unseemly scramble on the Democrats’ side to hold the governorship. Continue reading PPP: McDonnell/Deeds 51/37.