Rather than walk you through the latest changes – short version is that the sliding of the Democratic party’s House members into the abyss is operating more or less on schedule – I’d thought that I’d show you just how bad an election cycle it’s been for the Other Side. Here’s the House [UPDATE: the 2008 entries in each case are the first Cook surveys of the 2010 election cycle]:
| 11/1/2010 | 11/13/2008 | |||
| Dem | GOP | Dem | GOP | |
| Likely D | 19 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Lean D | 23 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Toss-Up | 49 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Lean R | 21 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Likely R | 8 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| Total | 120 | 15 | 48 | 34 |
| High-Risk | 78 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
…and here’s the Senate:
| 11/1/2010 | 11/14/2008 | |||
| Dem | GOP | Dem | GOP | |
| Solid D | 6 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Likely D | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Lean D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Toss-Up | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Lean R | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Likely R | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Solid R | 1 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| In-Play | 13 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| High-Risk | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
and here’s the Governors’ races:
| 10/29/2010 | 11/13/2008 | |||
| Dem | GOP | Dem | GOP | |
| Solid D | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Likely D | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Lean D | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Toss-Up | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Lean R | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Likely R | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Solid R | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| In-Play | 17 | 13 | 17 | 16 |
| High-Risk | 14 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
Now, I freely admit that I am of course one of those awful Republican Death Beasts and everything, but I can’t help but notice that the above trends are not precisely indicative of a successful political strategy on the part of the Democratic party.
Have a nice night!
Moe Lane
, and is (to the best to my knowledge) in the public domain.
Uh, Moe? – I think your 2008 dates in the tables above are wrong: I think you mean 11/3/2008 and 11/4/2008…
No, those are the first Cook lists of the 2010 election season. I should make that clearer.