These first early voting numbers for LA-SEN are maybe *too* good for us.

Courtesy of the indispensable AOSHQDD comes the first early voting numbers for Louisiana’s Senate runoff numbers, and if the trends hold they’re gruesome for Mary Landrieu. The summary: about 136,000 people did early/absentee voting as of 11/25/2014.  72% of those voters were white, 25% black, the rest ‘other.’ If the numbers found here are accurate, Landrieu got 94% of the black vote in the primary… and 18% of the white vote.  Some back of the envelope calculations later… if the same electorate that voted in the general election also votes in the runoff, Bill Cassidy is ahead of Mary Landrieu, 62-38 (if you spot all of the Other votes to Landrieu the win goes ‘down’ to 61/39).

Those are a lot of assumptions, mind you.  The racial breakdown of the vote is largely based on the CNN exit polls; and, of course, local Democrats are going to go do their level best to increase black turnout.  But even if the Democrats manage to get a runoff electorate that’s 30% black Mary Landrieu still loses.  Badly (59/41)*.  This is so much of a looming disaster for the Landrieu campaign that I’m actively slightly suspicious of it.  No way is she losing this badly, right?

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Seriously, though, DOOM.

*I didn’t even bother to factor in the ‘Other’ votes, that time.  The only difference would be in in how far the rubble bounced.

Keystone: Failed. LA-SEN runoff: …DOOM.

A colleague suggests that Mary Landrieu is beyond DOOM, in fact.

Yup. Senator Mary Landrieu’s last, desperate leap for safety came up short: the Keystone Pipeline bill that Rep. Bill Cassidy championed in the House went down in the Senate. 59-41, of course: Harry Reid ends his career as Senate Majority Leader as he began it. Which is to say, by toadying to the rather disassociated, yet hardcore partisan, establishment figures that run the Democratic party these days. Continue reading Keystone: Failed. LA-SEN runoff: …DOOM.

Colorado Senate: …DOOM.

Well, Mark Udall, you had a pretty good run.

Then, finally, came the only reference to policy in [Mark] Udall’s speech. “And by the way, I’m proud to stand with Colorado’s women,” he said, almost as an aside. “I’m proud to stand for reproductive freedom.”

An angry voice from the crowd jeered: “That’s not the only thing you stand for! J[****] C[*****]!”

Udall turned to a short, dark man on his left. The senator look genuinely stunned. “I’m sorry?”

“That’s not the only thing you stand for!” The heckler was Leo Beserra, a 73-year-old who made millions on Wall Street and, since the early 1990s, has shared a generous slice of that wealth with Colorado Democrats.

Continue reading Colorado Senate: …DOOM.

Arkansas Senate: …DOOM.

The Arkansas Senate election is now over*.

Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor argued that the federal government’s desegregation of Arkansas’s largest public school in 1957 was an “unwilling invasion” that took “a local problem out of the local authorities’ hands” and led to deep suspicions of democracy in the state, according to a copy of his college thesis obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.

Written in 1985, the 30-page paper—which also suggested that the state’s Democratic Party was hindering economic progress, and attributed policies such as welfare and the Equal Rights Amendment to “wild-eyed liberals”—could add to Pryor’s difficulties as he fights to protect his seat from Republican challenger Rep. Tom Cotton.

Continue reading Arkansas Senate: …DOOM.

Pro-forma DOOM in NC-02.

There’s a reason why NC-02 is rated Safe Republican these days, and here it is:

When your campaign signs demonstrate that your overall strategy is to explicitly confuse potential voters about your political party affiliation, your campaign is pretty much over. Renee Ellmers is going to beat Clay Aiken, and Aiken is unlikely to be gracious about it. He’ll be amusingly ungracious about it, though. Which should be fun!

Moe Lane

Is this DOOM for Pat Quinn (D-INC, Illinois-GOV)?

I am hesitant to declare DOOM too early, but… wow.

Chicago’s championship Little League team greeted Illinois Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn with awkward silence, despite the best efforts of an enthusiastic emcee to rustle up some applause.

I mean. Wow. On the one hand, it’s like everybody is just counting the days until Pat Quinn is gone and Bruce Rauner becomes the next governor of Illinois. On the other hand, given the way that Quinn has made a mess of things, it’s surprising that Rauner would want the job. On the gripping hand, as far as I know Pat Quinn is not going to be leaving office while also under indictment, so arguably he’s the best governor Illinois has had in quite some time.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Continue reading Is this DOOM for Pat Quinn (D-INC, Illinois-GOV)?

The stench of DOOM in Ed Fitzgerald’s (D CAND, Ohio-GOV) campaign.

(via @baseballcrank) It is, of course, too early for a DOOM call itself.  But this is one of the warning signs:

Top employees are preparing to leave Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ed FitzGerald’s campaign, multiple sources have told The Dispatch, choosing to part ways with a candidate who has been bludgeoned by bad headlines all month relating to personal choices he has made.

Campaign manager Nicholas Buis, communication director Daniel McElhatton and press secretary Lauren Hitt are the three FitzGerald staff members preparing to transition away from the campaign, according to sources who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive campaign issues that FitzGerald himself has not announced. Sources said the situation was “still fluid,” but it was likely that at least two – if not all of them – would leave the campaign by week’s end or only work for FitzGerald in greatly reduced roles.

Continue reading The stench of DOOM in Ed Fitzgerald’s (D CAND, Ohio-GOV) campaign.

Wendy Davis perilously close to a #DOOM call from… The Daily Beast.

(H/T: Hot Air Headlines) Seriously, if I wrote this people would tsk-tsk me as being a hyper-partisan.

As if things weren’t going badly enough for Wendy Davis, the Texas gubernatorial candidate got caught inflating her campaign’s finances this week by counting a Willie Nelson concert as a contribution.

Davis, the Texas Democrat best known for her 2013 filibuster against an anti-abortion bill, is facing an uphill battle to beat state attorney general Greg Abbott to lead the Lone Star State in November. Polls have Davis consistently trailing by 10-15% and the erstwhile Democratic rock star, who is already on her second campaign manager, seems to be on course for an early election night and a big MSNBC contract.

Admittedly, I am a hyper-partisan, but in this particular case I’d be also a pretty accurate one. If not downright ‘prophetic:’ Wendy Davis will make a great addition to the MSNBC lineup, for the stereotypical given value of ‘great.’ Continue reading Wendy Davis perilously close to a #DOOM call from… The Daily Beast.

#DOOM in the New Jersey Governor’s race.

I don’t like calling DOOM before I’m absolutely, positively sure, but: the New Jersey governor’s race is over.

Yeah, I know that you knew that already, but Barbara Buono’s response should start making Democratic state legislators up for re-election nervous. That’s the response of somebody who thinks (accurately) that she was hung out to dry by her own party establishment and who has decided that she doesn’t care whether people expect her to take one for the team anyway.  Which means that it’s the response of somebody who doesn’t care if her own party wins the downticket races on Election Night.

Fine by me.  The more seats we gain in the state legislature, the more future candidates we can cultivate. Buono wants to help us with that out of spite, well, that’s not my problem.