Month: February 2012

NY redistricting may end in Gary Ackerman (D, NY) cutting and running?

OK, here’s the background: NY is losing two seats in Congress, thanks to the 2010 Census. Well, more accurately, thanks to the urban blue model of governance that has had folks fleeing those urban areas in droves – but never mind that now. As has been noted previously, the New York legislature is having a devil of a time coming up with a map that backstabs the right people and groups, which is why the courts have stepped in and may take over the process of drawing the actual maps.  Given that the Republican Senate and the Democratic Assembly and  whatever-gets-me-a-Presidential-nomination Governor Andrew Cuomo are currently engaged in a three-sided brawl on the subject, this may actually even happen.

What makes this interesting is a report from earlier in the month that one potential plan to handle the downstate/upstate bloodletting – OK, let me explain that.  The upstate districts in NY are where the GOP is strongest; the downstate districts are dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats aren’t really in a position to eliminate two Republican-held seats, so the general assumption has been that one upstate GOP legislator and one downstate Democratic one will get worked over by this deal.

How that would work is complicated by New York’s convoluted recent electoral history.  Right now there are eight Republicans and twenty-one Democrats in the NY delegation.  Of the Republicans, only one – Bob Turner, in Anthony Weiner’s old seat – is a really good pickup opportunity; the rest are either freshmen who took back established Republican seats, or Pete King (and thus probably invulnerable).  Diluting Hinchley – which is what the courts may want to do – probably won’t kill the re-election chances of anybody on the GOP side.  On the other hand, Democrats William Owens and Kathy Hochul are in trouble in the general election: the first one is in office because the Republicans/Conservatives decided to split their strength for two consecutive contests; and the second one is in office because Chris Lee tried to cheat on his wife using Craigslist.   Shorter version: Hinchley’s retirement makes keeping Turner’s downstate seat intact a good thing for the Democratic party, because the GOP probably won’t sit still for eliminating two Republican-held seats AND NY Democrats will need something to offset two possible (and plausible) losses this fall.

Believe me, trying to keep this stuff straight in my own head is difficult; I’m probably getting at least four critical details quite wrong.

Continue reading NY redistricting may end in Gary Ackerman (D, NY) cutting and running?

#rsrh Obviously, AZ & MI primaries tonight.

My gut’s telling me that if Mitt Romney wins, it’s going to be by a bit; if Rick Santorum wins, it’s going to be by a hair; if Newt Gingrich wins, it’s going to be a miracle; and if Ron Paul wins, it’s going to be this.

Mind you, there’s a big dividing line between ‘Rick Santorum wins’ and ‘Newt Gingrich wins.’

Moe Lane

PS: As to who will win? Don’t know, don’t really care.

Barack Obama no longer really even pretending to have faith council.

Not that the President ever really had one, contra this Politico report: what Barack Obama had was a collection of useful idio… ah, “a group of religious organizations that were perhaps a little too trusting of the President’s motives and intentions.”  Either way, the Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships was always merely window dressing; the Democrats have always had to grapple with the problem that their rank and file voters have drastically different views on religion than do their self-selected “elite” voters.  And by that I don’t just mean differences in policy positions, although that’s certainly true, too: what I primarily mean is that your average Democratic voter is much more likely to love Jesus Christ because He was, well, Jesus Christ – and not because Jesus Christ merely had an interesting take on the social gospel.

As to why it failed… from looking at the article it may be due to the besetting sin of this administration; ineptitude that may have coupled with indifference, but ended up being married off to laziness.  Reading between the lines, the administration apparently made the usual mistake of merely starting something with a splash (ineptitude) and not doing the boring scut-work (indifference), secure in the knowledge that if the job was really important then somebody else would feel obligated to take up the slack (laziness).  And if nobody did take up the slack, and it turned out that somebody should have – well, that would be a problem for a few years down the road. Continue reading Barack Obama no longer really even pretending to have faith council.

Normally I wouldn’t feed trolls like this…

…but this comment accusing my friend and colleague Erick Erickson of being an active agent for the Occupy movement – this was apparently was written in all seriousness, God help us all – suggests to me that there’s filthy lucre in writing out any sort of thing on the Internet, then pointing to it later.  So, here goes:

The cause of conservatism will be immeasurably blessed by throwing fifty bucks in Moe Lane’s PayPal account.





 

HEY! It’s on the Internet! It has to be true!

“Brown Bess.”

In reference to Glenn Reynolds’ natural-enough surprise that we’re still using a damn good plane design, I shall now quote some Rudyard Kipling at him.  Because that’s how I roll.

“Brown Bess,” by Rudyard Kipling
The Army Musket — 1700-1815

IN the days of lace-ruffles, perukes and brocade
Brown Bess was a partner whom none could despise–
An out-spoken, flinty-lipped, brazen-faced jade,
With a habit of looking men straight in the eyes–
At Blenhein and Ramillies fops would confess
They were pierced to the heart by the charms of Brown Bess.

Though her sight was not long and her weight was not small,
Yet her actions were winning, her language was clear;
And everyone bowed as she opened the ball
On the arm of some high-gaitered, grim grenadier.
Half Europe admitted the striking success
Of the dances and routs that were given by Brown Bess.

Continue reading “Brown Bess.”

Reality Defeats Me, County Supervisor/Sex Tape/Meth Scandal Edition.

I got nothing about this story about Alameda County (California) Supervisor Nadia Lockyer (wife to California Treasurer Bill Lockyer) and an alleged sex tape allegedly involving her and a former meth addict.  Well.  Almost nothing.

:ahem:

NAME.

THAT.

PARTY!!!!!

…And no, the name of the party is not “methamphetamine.”

Moe Lane

(Via Instapundit, via AoSHQ)