Look at this title and subtitle: great news for Democrats, right?
2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008
Composition of electorate by race, age, gender essentially the same
Yup, horrible news… wait a second. Notice what’s missing from that subtitle? As in, what rather important category? For an election? You know… political affiliation?
Yeah, well, there’s a reason for that.
In 2008, Gallup had the electorate as being +10 Democrat (+12 Democrat, with leaners). Right now, they’re forecasting it as being +1 Republican (+3 Republican, with leaners). Which means that by the most important criterion of the Presidential election 2012 is not like 2008 at all: it’s like 2004 (+2 Republican/even, with leaners). Which means that the subtext of the title (“Democrats gonna win!”) is actually completely subverted by the implications of the data (“Democrats gonna lose!”).
I take some pleasure in being an aggravating so-and-so to the Online Left, but I have to say: this is epic trolling by Gallup. I would like to think that I could come up with something this contemptuously brilliant, but I am forced to admit that I am unsure that I could pull it off.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
Perhaps this is related to Gallup’s recent .. legal troubles?
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Mew
Know what I like even more than the numbers? Your name for the snapshot, DoomGallup.jpg. Eagerly awaiting the official call of DOOM.
This one’s too important for a premature DOOM call, Doug. I mean, right now I think we’re winning, but DOOM is special. 🙂
RE-calculate all of October polls with R+1, or heck, call it even, and what do we have? A Romney landslide. Grab your surf boards, boys!
Moe: Latveria turns it’s tired eyes to you awaiting your call!
Is this one of those moments when it’s cool to start a “slow clap”?
/looks around and starts slowly clapping
If the 2008 demographics show up to vote and that creates an R+1 electorate as opposed to D+7, then wouldn’t that indicate a shift in minority voting preferences that could possibly be DOOM-worthy for years to come?
Maybe Gallup is just splitting the difference by reporting the real data, but using a fake headline to make Axelgrease happy.
Why aren’t you saying your usual DOOM? If this is true, that’s exactly how I’d interpret it. 🙂
OU812: During the 2009(?) NY special elections I declared DOOM too early. One must be careful in these matters.