#rsrh The ‘Democratic surge.’

James Oliphant rather badly wants there to be one, apparently.

Here, as well as in other pockets of America, House Democrats in conservative-leaning districts have dug in, fought back and begun to reverse declining poll numbers and poor favorability ratings, developing what they believe are winning messages in a hostile political environment.

Their cumulative efforts could blunt some of the predicted GOP gains next month, Democrats hope, showing that even a powerful wave can run up against break walls.

The only problem?  Well, he has to work with Democrats.  Below is a list of every Democratic incumbent that Oliphant mentioned by name in his article, coupled with their RCP average:

Bobby Bright None
Rick Boucher 52%
Scott Murphy 50%
Michael Arcuri 48%
Joe Donnelly 47%
Walt Minnick 46%
Gabrielle Giffords 46%
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin 45%
Dina Titus 45%
Earl Pomeroy 44%

A couple of these candidates have only one poll to average; but of the eleven Democrats mentioned, only two have an average of 50% (which is generally considered the cutoff for an at-risk incumbent).  Even if you give Bobby Bright the benefit of the doubt, 73% of this list is still staring defeat in the face.  And there’s not much sign (aside from Murphy and Boucher, to an extent) of movement on those numbers, either.

Can these numbers move?  Sure.  But they already should have, and for the incumbents.  And that’s pretty much all that can be said – except that there’s only three weeks left in this election cycle.

Moe Lane

2 thoughts on “#rsrh The ‘Democratic surge.’”

  1. I personally doubt Boucher’s as “solid” as he’s been made out to be – if Spratt and Skelton go down on election night, I suspect it’s a good bet that Boucher will be losing too…

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