There’s been a bunch of predictive 2012 maps being thrown around today, so let’s look at one that is more an examination of trends at the moment. The latest Cook Report survey has the current estimated Electoral Vote breakdown for 2012 as follows:
| Solid | Likely | Lean | Core | Leaner | |
| Romney | 143 | 48 | 19 | 191 | 210 |
| Obama | 175 | 7 | 45 | 182 | 227 |
The visual:
In other words – and contrary to a lot of agitprop, on both sides – it’s game on, and we’re going to be fighting it out in the swing states again. Cook has the toss-up states as being Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia: notice that all of these states are ones that Barack Obama won in 2008. Also note that, of the seven states, only Colorado and Nevada has been really friendly territory for Democrats lately on a state level:
| State | Gov | Sen | House |
| CO | D | D | R |
| FL | R | R | R |
| IA | R | D | R |
| NV | R | D | D |
| OH | R | R | R |
| PA | R | R | R |
| VA | R | R* | R |
Virginia has a tied Senate, with the Republican Lt. Gov having the tie-breaking vote. But that more or less doesn’t matter; what matters here is that when Obama campaigns in 2012 he will not be getting the same welcome in, say, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia that he did in 2008. Of less, but still significant, interest is that Obama’s path to victory requires him to run the tables; we reapportioned EVs between 2008 and now, and largely at the Democrats expense.
And here’s the practical application to all of the above: which is to say, the Republican path to victory from the Cook baseline.
Essentially: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and have a nice day.
This can be done.
Moe Lane
why is NH red? I thought R’s gave up on New England a long time ago. And incidentally, why aren’t IA and WI red? IA has leaned more Republican, and if Scott Walker and the recalled R senators all survive their respective recalls, don’t you think WI could go red? Finally, what about NJ? Obama can’t get even 50% approval there, and they have a Republican governor with an unheard-of 60% approval rating. I do wonder if NJ can go red…
I was wondering about IA and WI, too. NH went pretty hard right in 2010, and it’s a state Republicans have won before. And Michigan can’t be that clear, either, given recent trends.
Looks like Romney will be the first Republican to lose his home state in as long as I can recall. And I think he’ll be the first candidate in either party to ever win despite that. (For all of Gore’s Florida issues, had he just won his home state, he’d have been President. I always enjoy noting that for some reason.)
I don’t see Obama breaking 200. Some maps show Obama cleaning up with 290 EVs, others show a horserace. The media will push the “Obama is a lock” meme for now, then switch to the “Obama as underdog” meme by August. In October they will report Obama as the “Comeback Kid” and that Obama and Romney are essentially tied up until November 1st, when independents finally “break” for Romney and Romney wins in a romp.
Back in ’08, Obama still would have won with your map. 2010 was a well timed census.