I mean, I get that on the GOP side it turned out to be safe to bet that McCain was going to get the nomination in 2008 after losing out to GWB in 2000, and that Romney would get it in 2012 after losing out to McCain in 2008. But the assumed Democratic nominee for 2008 in 2005 was Hillary Clinton, and the assumed 2004 nominee in 2001 was Gore, and… I don’t remember who the assumed Dem candidate was in 1989, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t Bill Clinton. For that matter, the assumed GOP candidate in 1997 wasn’t GWB (can’t remember if the assumed GOP one in 1993 was Bob Dole: wouldn’t surprise me either way).
My point is this: don’t assume inevitability. Particularly on the Democratic side. The whispering campaigns have already started about Hillary Clinton – and unlike Barack Obama in 2008, the Clintons in 2012 have a history.
Given the Free Beacon article, these are more than just whispers. I suspect the Biden team is lobbing anonymous grenades over the garden wall.
True enough that you can’t predict who the Dems are going to nominate. Hillary has trains full of baggage. The Dems are institutionally inclined to embrace the new and fetishize youth. I don’t think Hillary has much of a shot. (And I think Biden has even less.)
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That said, the power players on the Republican side line up well before primary season. The election aftermath in November and December of this year should give us a good sounding as to who they’re going to back.
The assumed Democrat candidate in 89 was Mario Cuomo.
The assumed Republican candidate in 05 by the way was George Allen.