…over at AoSHQ. A taste:
Cochran’s lead per this poll is entirely out of the third congressional district. You’ll notice it has a high concentration of “big vote” counties. McDaniel keeps things tight by edging Cochran in the largest-by-number-of-voters district, CD4. But he will need to do a lot better in counties that may favor the Senator, like Harrison and Jackson.
Short version: there are a lot of places in Mississippi that don’t actually bother to come out for primaries. McDaniel is drawing support from areas that have that quirk. Not insurmountable, by any means, but something to watch for, next Tuesday.
Moe Lane
PS: I am barely managing to stay out of this primary, and let me assure you: the NRSC isn’t making that bit of forbearance easy.
You have to get over 50% to avoid a runoff. And while this race is mostly just Cochran vs. McDaniel there are one or two other bucket list candidates that may attract anywhere from .001% to 3%. If the race is real close they may just force a runoff. Which would benefit McDaniel more then Cochran ( CD has momentum right now and even Palin is campaigning for him).