Interesting analysis on the GOP’s relative strength right now.

Let’s toss out the math – I’m sorry, but I have had a sufficiently long enough day that I am not up to explaining the math – and get to the meat:

It goes without saying that Republicans improved upon their showing in the 2014 elections.  Their 54 Senate seats represent the second-best tally for the party since 1928.  Their 247 House seats is the most the party has won since 1928, although when combined with the popular vote percentage, it drops to the second-highest since then (in 1946, the party did slightly better).

At the state level, the GOP’s share of governorships is the ninth-highest since Reconstruction, and the third-highest in the post-war era (1996 and 1998 were higher). The party’s showing in state legislatures is the highest since 1920, the ninth-highest ever, and the third-highest since the end of Reconstruction.


This is the Republican Party’s best showing in the index since 1928…

…and that news will annoy quite a bunch of people.  And not only people on the Left, either.  There are many people who have a vested interest in declaring that The GOP Is Doomed Unless They Follow This Particular Manfesto Perfectly; the suggestion that the state parties are remarkably healthy right now might prove, ah, problematic to that narrative.  Particularly since one party or another’s supposed lock on the Presidency is generally seen as being unbreakable, right up to the very moment that it breaks.

True, it’s kind of a relief to know that you don’t really have to do everything perfectly, in order to win*. But some people will wonder what the point is to being Moses, if the Israelites can get to the Promised Land well enough on their own…

Moe Lane

PS: Anybody on the Left who is telling you that the GOP is doomed right now is probably actually saying something along the lines of I’m worried about us losing the election, and I’m not sure why.  I know that many of my readers are not inclined to pity them for that, of course. Still, we’ve all been there, and we’ll all be there again.

*I understand – and approve of – why, say, Reince Priebus would say such things in public; but the truth is largely the exact opposite. When you’re going to win, it’s almost impossible to not do things perfectly. Under those conditions, things that would otherwise be infuriating obstacles instead become amusing little anecdotes.

5 thoughts on “Interesting analysis on the GOP’s relative strength right now.”

  1. The thing about most would-be Moseses (Mosesii?) is they’ve never encountered a *talking* burning bush ..

  2. I hope the Democrat campaign to get Republicans to “Run to the Hills!” in despair has run it’s course by then. Gee, the endless frothing about “Dooooom!” on our side gets tiring…..

    1. It can be exhausting.

      But on the bright-side the AoSHQ Outrage Outlet does a very steady business!

      “Trade in last Years’ Hummphs for this Summers’ Imprecations – a One for One Deal only at the Outrage Outlet!”

  3. There was this Politico article about how the GOP was dying – so many old folks in it.
    After reading the article I thought I could sum it up:

    “Surrender Dorothy!”

  4. On Presidential politics going back to 1952 (post WWII) the Democrats and the Republicans have pretty much swapped the White House. The only things that I have seen as constants are: Domestic – keep the economy humming; and Foreign – keep the USA top dog in a dog-eat-dog world.
    No, seriously – that’s my understanding summed up as:
    “Prosperity at home; the Navy at sea.”
    (Anyone else got an assessment different than that?)

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