I really wish that the Media wouldn’t write stories like these. They’re inimical to the long-term plans of the Republican party; worse, they highlight things that we, put simply, would prefer not be mentioned in public. Mind you, we can overcome these kinds of revelations anyway, but it’s all still a reminder that The Media Is Not Our Friend:
You would expect that a political party that recently won a majority in the U.S. Senate, gained strength in the House, captured 31 of 50 governorships and gave 24 of those governors majorities in their legislatures would be basking in predictions of future success. But rather than luxuriating in the warm glow of bright prospects, the Republican Party is, in the eyes of some experts, on track for extinction.
The reasons center on demographic forecasts showing groups likely to vote for the GOP in steep decline and Democratic-oriented voters surging. But such “in the long run” predictions resemble those fanciful 1930s prophecies that by 1970, we would be all be commuting by autogiro and living in geodesic domes.
I mean, it’s one thing for some one like myself to note that the Democrats are relying on a demographic model that is over a decade old, and increasingly showing that age. I’m a partisan Republican hack, after all. It’s easy for my political opponents to dismiss me, especially since doing so would allow them to smugly sneer. But when actual op-eds along those lines appear in national news websites? …Well, Democrats might actually take them seriously. Which still wouldn’t save them next November, but I was kind of hoping that the Election Night returns would be a bit of a surprise.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
Yeah that dude needs to stop.
The comments there are hysterical in every way.
Demographic trends are about the flimsiest sort of trend that I can think of. For example: What were the immigration trends in 1900 and how do they apply today?
Yeah, they don’t apply today and those of today won’t apply twenty years from now.
I’ll now mention that a political party that is depending on demographic trends to waft it along to victory is one that is depending upon magic. And it also means that political party is plumb out of anything resembling a new idea.
These are people who believe you can get enough energy to run a modern civilization without nukes or fossil fuels. Belief in magic is a core value.