…but you should probably take the argument seriously.
Don’t agree with all of this, but @SeanTrende makes the case for why Christie’s Senate move was shrewd http://t.co/XRqAvbynwW
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) June 5, 2013
One thing that Sean said rings particularly true: “The battlefield of presidential politics is littered with the bones of politicians who started thinking about Iowa before tending to their own re-election efforts.” I should also note that a lot of people – including me, some days – are simply assuming that Cory Booker’s social media-friendly persona will beat out Frank Pallone’s I-buried-the-bodies-so-of-course-I-know-where-they-are machine politics methodology in a primary. If that does not happen, then the odds of a GOP upset go a little bit higher; after all, it then becomes an off-year, off-date special election where the Old White Guy beat out that nice Mayor who gets along so well with Governor Christie. Every little bit helps.
Again, you are not required to agree with any of this.
Moe Lane
This is better than I’d expected of Christie.
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I figured he’d move to the middle (and hope to be forgiven) by appointing Booker .. to keep Booker from running against him.
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Making Booker run in a special election makes more sense.. “Let him win on his merits, if he can”… and the path the Dems have to walk to blame Christie for a potential Booker loss in 2016 is .. hard.
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Mew
I’d also say Trende is right, those that think Christie could appoint a replacement until Nov 2014 are chosing to ignore some pertinent facts.
A) The NJ law is vague as to the definition of a General election (i.e. he can appoint until the next general election but the definition of a general election is such the next one might actually be Nov 2013).
B) The ultimate interpreters of the NJ law will be the left of Karl Marx communtariat otherwise known as the NJ State Supreme Court.
C) Chris Christie is a pretty good lawyer with a substantial amount of experience negotiating the NJ judicial branch and his calc of his chances at winning a legal challenge are probably more reliable than folks who have never stepped foot in a NJ court room in case some Dem organization sued him to get Booker on the ticket in Nov 2013
D) Some Dem organization was going to sue him if he tried to extend the appointment to Nov 2014
E) Nothing good would come of it for the GOP if Corey Booker was on the ticket Nov 2013 either in down ballot races or in Christie’s race
Some Liberal on politico told me Booker is in the Dog House with the Dems, that supposedly they don’t like him for criticizing Obama’s blatant Marxist class warfare in the final months of last years campaign. Don’t know how much that would hurt him.
Given that, at some point, the Dems are going to have to acknowledge the economy sucked under Obama … this helps Booker.
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It also helps him to look “independent-minded”.
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Mew
This special election isn’t good for the GOP for a few reasons 1) all of the good gop candidates being suggested for 2014 cannot run in this election without seriously risking their current elected office e.g. Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno, State Assembly Minority Leader Tom Kean, State Assemblyman Michael Doherty, and State Senator and former Senate Candidate Joe Kyrillos. All of them except Doherty are Rockefeller GOP, Doherty is a Libertarian which might appeal to Liberal New Jersey voters maybe. Since NJ elections are in off years they risk their current offices something they don’t want to do without a good shot at winning something they don’t have if Booker is on the ticket. This leaves NJ’s Congressional Delegation (John Runyan has celebrity status but being a Tea Partier makes him DOA in a statewide race, and Freylinghusen stands the best chance of winning but will not want to give up his high ranking house status to serve a year in the Senate only to be booted out by Booker in 14′) all of this is assuming Pallone amazingly beats Booker in the Primary since Booker will beat anybody. In my opinion NJ GOP should (if they can) avoid having a primary and select a candidate after the Dems select theirs (that’s assuming they are allowed to) Booker will beat anybody and if he’s the candidate the GOP might as well put up Geraldo, might actually make this race entertaining.
So .. if the NJ GOP doesn’t have a deep enough statewide bench .. why is removing this contest from impact on the regularly scheduled election bad for the GOP? It seems your opening statement does not stack up with your follow-on….
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Mew
While I suppose shrewd political moves from liberal politicians have been rare in the past – they shouldn’t be that surprising. I mean, they can’t all be idiots. But I guess it would have been nice for Christie to both help the party and hurt his presidential chances, but no politician is going to do that.