Tag: 2010 election

Third-party Hail Marys and the Democratic party.

Very entertaining news from Stu Rothenberg:

An unusual number of Democratic candidates running this cycle are basing their victory scenarios on the existence of Independent or third-party candidates in their races. Are their hopes reasonable or are they merely grasping at straws?

They’re merely grasping at straws.  To skip ahead a bit:

…more often than not, Independents and third-party candidates see their support evaporate as Election Day approaches, as voters realize that a vote for an also-ran is a wasted vote.

For an example of this, look no further than the 2009 NJ gubernatorial election. If you look at the polls for that election, you’ll see that virtually every scenario that had Jon Corzine ahead relied on double-digit results for the third-party candidate.  The Democrats even went to the point of doing robocalls for the third-party candidate, which ended up doing nothing much for Corzine.  Third-party support had been declining in NJ for weeks beforehand, precisely in the fashion and the reasons that Stu noted above.
Continue reading Third-party Hail Marys and the Democratic party.

PotUS November strategy: fighting where they REALLY ain’t.

Yes, the title is meant to be subtly mocking.

This article in the New York Times on the awkward disconnect between the President of the United States and the political party that he’s presumably in charge of is actually… not  too bad, really.  This, for example, is pretty clear-headed:

In 2006 and 2008, Democrats did something that had not been done in American politics since the Great Depression, which is to string together two consecutive “wave” elections — roughly defined as a gain of at least 20 seats in the House of Representatives. They gained a total of 55 House seats and 12 seats in the Senate; the tide came in twice and with unusual strength. That means that some significant number of the Democrats elected in the last two cycles, to put it bluntly, really don’t have much business holding their seats in the first place. Either their districts normally trend Republican — 49 Democratic House members were elected from districts that voted for John McCain — or they themselves probably wouldn’t have cleared the threshold for a successful candidacy in a more conventional election year.

…where it breaks down is in considering some of the implications.  Well, that’s why we’re here. Continue reading PotUS November strategy: fighting where they REALLY ain’t.

‘One (hundred) seat at a time…’

House Minority Leader John Boehner made a comment late last week that raised an eyebrow or two:

When pressed for a number, Boehner said he believed the GOP could win as many as 100 seats in this fall’s elections.

“At least 100 seats,” Boehner said when asked how wide the playing field for districts is. “I do,” the top House Republican answered when asked if he thinks there are 100 seats in the U.S. “that could change hands.”

Much as I hate to contradict Rep. Boehner, we must fight inaccuracy in all its forms.  There are not currently one hundred Democratic-held seats that could change hands, and he should have known better than to claim that in this media atmosphere.

There are currently only ninety-nine. Continue reading ‘One (hundred) seat at a time…’

What’s with this ‘unthinkable’ nonsense?

I’ve been thinking about how to get at least the House back in 2010 since Jim Martin‘s implosion, Fleming’s survival, and Cao’s upset demonstrated that the President’s get-people-elected charisma had a half-life of, oh, about four weeks.

Which is not to say that Brian York’s article on the subject is bad: it’s pretty good as a summary of current thinking (short version: the Democrats  are paying the price for getting grabby).  I just reject the thought that we’re just now getting to our feet.  Some of us jumped right back up after the election, thank you very much…

Crossposted to RedState.

Speaking with Nikki Haley (R-CAN, SC-GOV)

“We can’t be scared to say that we want to be conservatives again.”

haleyI had the opportunity to speak with South Carolina gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley the other day.  Rather than subject you to my stammering and verbal tics, I’ve summarized the call below, with transcribed quotes as appropriate, and three longer ones highlighted. Bottom line: State Representative Haley is a candidate that anyone interested in fiscal reform should take a good look at. The interview did not go overly into social issues, but her views on life and family issues appear solid.   Her donation page is here; Facebook group, here; and official stance on issues, here.

On her background:

Nikki Haley was born and raised in Bamberg, a small (population 2,500) town in South Carolina: “we learned accountability & responsibility early, because the second we thought about doing something wrong, someone was already calling and telling our mom.”  She’s a second-generation Indian-American with a public school education and an accounting degree from Clemson University, which she later used to help improve and expand her parents’ family business.  She is married, with two children: her husband is in the Army National Guard.

“I am the daughter of two immigrant parents who came here with eight dollars in their pocket that never let us forget what a blessing it is to live in this country: I’m the sister of a man who fought in Desert Storm and I remember what it was like to wonder if he would come home; I’m the wife of a husband in the military who loves his job; I’m the mother of two children who attend public schools and I wonder what their lives are going to be like when they grow up; and I’m a legislator who knows what good government can look like, and I want people to know what it feels like.”

Continue reading Speaking with Nikki Haley (R-CAN, SC-GOV)

How is that undivided government thing working out for corporate America?

Via Instapundit comes both Roger Kimball’s and Tigerhawk’s comments on this Forbes article about Clifford Asness (“The Protest of a Patriot“). Come, I will hide nothing from you: I am not currently a businessman, and it’s been almost a decade since I was really involved in any sort of business. So I have no personal knowledge about the exact number of people out there who are discovering that they, too, can have a class interest; that they feel that it’s not being served properly in today’s anti-productive atmosphere; and that they feel personally insecure about saying the previous too loudly. Continue reading How is that undivided government thing working out for corporate America?

Sabato’s Handicapping the Governors’ races, Part One.

The Democrats are not in as good a position as their position two weeks ago might have suggested.

Larry Sabato has done the first half of his anaylsis of the governor’s races for 2010 (the Democratic half): the basic results are below.

  • ARKANSAS: DEMOCRATIC HOLD.
  • COLORADO: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
  • ILLINOIS: TOSS-UP.
  • IOWA: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
  • KANSAS: LEANS REPUBLICAN TURNOVER.
  • MAINE: TOSS-UP.
  • MARYLAND: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
  • MASSACHUSETTS: DEMOCRATIC HOLD.
  • MICHIGAN: TOSS-UP.
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC HOLD / TOSS-UP
  • NEW MEXICO: LEANS DEMOCRATIC HOLD
  • NEW YORK: LEANS DEMOCRATIC / TOSS UP
  • OHIO: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
  • OKLAHOMA: TOSS-UP.
  • OREGON: TOSS-UP
  • PENNSYLVANIA: TOSS-UP.
  • TENNESSEE: TOSS-UP.
  • WISCONSIN: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
  • WYOMING: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.

Continue reading Sabato’s Handicapping the Governors’ races, Part One.

Video from Chesley Sullenberger’s first public comments.

As Hot Air notes, a man of few words. Their video doesn’t seem happy to work here, so below is a YouTube of his comments.

Check out the Hot Air link for his wife’s comments, which are very good.
Continue reading Video from Chesley Sullenberger’s first public comments.