There’s a lot of good news in this WMUR Granite State poll (as of this moment, we’re looking at retaining Gregg’s seat, and picking up both House seats), but Shea-Porter’s numbers are the most immediately interesting. 35/40 approval/disapproval (the worst she’s ever had); and she loses to all four hypothetical candidates:
In a race between Shea Porter and her best known challenger, Frank Guinta, 43% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Guinta, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 22% are undecided.
In a matchup with Rich Ashooh, 36% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Ashooh, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 28% are undecided.
In a matchup with Bob Bestani, 36% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Bestani, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 30% are undecided.
And in a matchup with Sean Mahoney, 39% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Mahoney, 32% would vote for Shea Porter, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 28% are undecided.
“Shea Porter does not break 40% against any of her challengers a sign that she faces an extremely difficult challenge to keep her seat,” said [Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center].