It is not the beginning of the end; but it the end of the beginning.
You’ve probably read about this Quinnipiac poll already. The short version, for those who haven’t: Biden, Clinton, and Sanders all lose to Bush, Rubio, and Walker in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. Virginia is the toughest nut for Republicans, but there isn’t a single combination above where any Democrat leads any Republican. So, Game Over, then?
Hardly. The election’s not tomorrow, and this poll will not reflect the final results except by sheer accident. Never use a poll to predict an election that will not be held for another year. Never. Even if your favored candidate is doing so. But what you can do is look at it and use it to try to get a feel for the current situation – and when I do that here I’m left with three major conclusions: Continue reading What today’s Q-Poll showing Democrats losing in key states does and does not mean.
Because this is what a pressure buildup looks like.
- Virginia voters overall appear to soften on Clinton, with Jeb Bush beating
her for the first time in a hypothetical 2016 match-up.
- Clinton beats all other potential Republican challengers, but is unable to
achieve 50% of the vote against any of them.
Continue reading I wonder how much longer the Democrats can keep the primary lid on.
Mind you, the country in general also dislikes the swap (43/34). But that’s nothing as compared to how veterans feel both about Bose Bergdahl, and the deal that Barack Obama made to bring him back: “Veterans are much more harsh in their assessment of the 28-year-old sergeant. Only 6% of veterans who responded say they sympathized with him, while 33% say they were angry. By 68%-16%, veterans say Obama made the wrong decision.” A couple of other things:
- The Pew poll found a two-to-one ratio in favor of having the President inform Congress before he does this sort of thing.
- The Pew poll also found that this story was tied with the ongoing Veterans Affairs meltdown – and the meltdown is only getting worse – as being the most important thing that Americans were paying attention to right now. Third thing? The economy*.
- This poll is of adults. How all of this is playing out among likely voters… well. Glad I’m not the one who has to worry about that!
Continue reading New USA Today/Pew poll: Veterans hate the Bergdahl/terrorist swap.
Some rather good news via RCP, in the form of the latest AP/GfK poll. Short version: polling adults*, there’s a +1 GOP advantage on who poll respondents want to run Congress (37/36); the same poll had it 39/32 the other way in January. And there’s an intensity gap, as well…
In the new poll, registered voters who are most strongly interested in politics favored the Republicans by 14 percentage points, 51 percent to 37 percent. In January, this group was about evenly split, with 42 percent preferring Democrats and 45 percent the Republicans.
That’s not the only positive sign in the poll for the Republicans.
Favorable views of the GOP have improved, with 38 percent overall now saying they hold a favorable impression of the Party. Republicans’ positive view of their own party has increased from 57 percent in January to 72 percent now.
Continue reading The latest AP/GfK poll *should* alarm Democrats.
What’s that, America?
Support for the Keystone XL pipeline reached a two-year high in the latest ABC News/ Washington Post poll, with the public overwhelmingly saying it would create jobs, while dividing on its potential environmental impact.
Two-thirds favor government approval of the 1,700-mile, $5.4 billion pipeline to move oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast, up 6 points from 2012, vs. two in 10 opposed. Eighty-five percent think it would create jobs, with 62 percent feeling that way strongly – up 11 percentage points.
Continue reading “Hey, America! You want some good infrastructure jobs and more oil?” #keystone