Moving along, given the noteworthy vote disparity between the Democrats and GOP total results last night I thought that I’d take a look at past results and see if anything jumped out at me. Which it has, actually. The 2010 results after the fold are taken from Politico, which unfortunately has the best real-time tracker out there that I’ve found; the past results are from the Florida state government site. I picked 2006 for Governor because it was (obviously) the last election year for one, and 2004 for Senate because there was a contested primary on both sides.
A quick look at both tables suggests the following:
- The enthusiasm gap in Florida is alive and well: there’s roughly a three-to-two ratio of Republican to Democratic voters last night. The gap is particularly interesting on the Senate side, given that Meek’s race was definitely contested… and yet there was less enthusiasm there than in 2004. Admittedly, 2004 was a Presidential year, but the Republicans came out in greater numbers in 2010.
- There were roughly the same number of voters in the gubernatorial and Senatorial primaries. Compared to 2006, there was an increase in turnout; compared to 2004, there was a slight decrease.
- Which begs the question: where are the Crist voters? I think that the answer is “voting in the Democratic primary:” Rubio won too crushingly for them to be present in the Republican primary; again, there were about the same number of voters voting for governor and Senator, so they weren’t voting in the gubernatorial primary while ignoring the Senate primary; and turnout doesn’t suggest that they just stayed home.
Which leads me to make a bold prediction: some time in the next few weeks Crist’s support is going to crater. By mid-October, he’ll be getting Meek’s pre-primary numbers and the DSCC will be seriously considering sending out ninja after him. Assuming that they hadn’t already written off yet another Senate race at that point.